1. Mekameka ahumahi Polysilicon: He uaua te tukanga whakaputa, ā, ko te tukanga whakararo e aro ana ki ngā semiconductors photovoltaic
Ko te nuinga o te polysilicon he mea hanga mai i te silicon ahumahi, te chlorine me te hauwai, ā, kei te taha whakarunga o ngā mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic me te semiconductor. E ai ki ngā raraunga CPIA, ko te tikanga hanga polysilicon matua o te ao ko te tikanga Siemens whakarerekētia, engari i Haina, neke atu i te 95% o te polysilicon ka hangaia mā te tikanga Siemens whakarerekētia. I roto i te tukanga whakarite polysilicon mā te tikanga Siemens whakapai ake, tuatahi, ka honoa te hau chlorine ki te hau hauwai hei whakaputa hauwai chloride, kātahi ka tauhohe ki te paura silicon i muri i te kuru me te huri i te silicon ahumahi hei whakaputa trichlorosilane, ka whakaitihia anō e te hau hauwai hei whakaputa polysilicon. Ka taea te whakarewa me te whakamatao i te silicon polycrystalline hei hanga i ngā ingots silicon polycrystalline, ā, ka taea hoki te whakaputa i te silicon monocrystalline mā te Czochralski, te rewa rohe rānei. Ki te whakatauritea ki te silicon polycrystalline, ko te silicon tioata kotahi he mea hanga mai i ngā kirikiri tioata he rite te whakatakotoranga tioata, nō reira he pai ake te kawe hiko me te pai o te hurihanga. Ka taea te tapahi me te tukatuka i ngā poro silicon polycrystalline me ngā tokotoko silicon monocrystalline hei hanga i ngā papa me ngā pūtau silicon, ā, ka noho hei wāhanga matua o ngā kōwae photovoltaic, ā, ka whakamahia i roto i te mara photovoltaic. Hei tāpiri, ka taea hoki te hanga i ngā papa silicon tioata kotahi hei papa silicon mā te huri, te whakakanapa, te epitaxy, te horoi me ētahi atu tukanga, ka taea te whakamahi hei rauemi papa mō ngā taputapu hiko semiconductor.
He mea tino hiahiatia te nui o te poke o te polysilicon, ā, he āhuatanga tō te umanga nei, arā, he nui te haumitanga whakapaipai me ngā arai hangarau teitei. Nā te mea ka pā kino te parakore o te polysilicon ki te tukanga tango silicon karaihe kotahi, he tino tino kaha ngā whakaritenga parakore. Ko te parakore iti rawa o te polysilicon he 99.9999%, ā, ko te mea teitei rawa atu he tata ki te 100%. Hei tāpiri, kua whakatakotohia e ngā paerewa ā-motu o Haina ngā whakaritenga mārama mō te nui o te pokekore, ā, i runga i tēnei, kua wehea te polysilicon ki ngā taumata I, II, me te III, ā, ko te nui o te boron, te phosphorus, te hāora me te waro he tohu tohutoro nui. E kī ana "Ngā Tikanga Whakauru Ahumahi Polysilicon" me whai pūnaha tirotiro me te whakahaere kounga pai ngā umanga, ā, me tutuki pai ngā paerewa hua ki ngā paerewa ā-motu; Hei tāpiritanga, ko ngā tikanga urunga e hiahia ana hoki ki te tauine me te whakapaunga pūngao o ngā umanga hanga polysilicon, pērā i te polysilicon taumata-rā, te polysilicon taumata-hiko. Ko te tauine kaupapa he nui ake i te 3000 tāne/tau me te 1000 tāne/tau, ā, ko te ōwehenga whakapaipai iti rawa i roto i te haumitanga o ngā kaupapa hanga hou me te hanga anō me te whakawhānui kaua e iti iho i te 30%, nō reira he umanga whakapaipai nui te polysilicon. E ai ki ngā tatauranga CPIA, kua paku piki te utu haumitanga o ngā taputapu raina hanga polysilicon 10,000-tāne i whakauruhia ki te mahi i te tau 2021 ki te 103 miriona yuan/kt. Ko te take ko te pikinga o te utu o ngā rauemi whakarewa papatipu. E matapaetia ana ka piki ake te utu haumitanga a meake nei me te ahunga whakamua o te hangarau taputapu whakaputa me te hekenga o te monomer i te pikinga o te rahi. E ai ki ngā ture, ko te whakapaunga hiko o te polysilicon mō te whakaiti Czochralski taumata-rā me te taumata-hiko me iti iho i te 60 kWh/kg me te 100 kWh/kg, ā, he tino pakari ngā whakaritenga mō ngā tohu whakapaunga pūngao. Ko te nuinga o te wā, ko te hanga polysilicon he mea hanga ki te umanga matū. He uaua te tukanga whakaputa, ā, he teitei te paepae mō ngā huarahi hangarau, te whiriwhiri taputapu, te whakatūnga me te whakahaere. He maha ngā tauhohenga matū uaua kei roto i te tukanga whakaputa, ā, neke atu i te 1,000 ngā pūnga whakahaere. He uaua ki ngā tauhou te tere matatau ki te mahi toi pakeke. Nō reira, he nui ngā arai whakapaipai me ngā arai hangarau i roto i te umanga whakaputa polysilicon, e whakatairanga ana hoki i ngā kaihanga polysilicon ki te whakahaere i te arotau hangarau tino pakari o te rere o te tukanga, te takai me te tukanga kawe.
2. Te whakarōpūtanga o te polysilicon: ko te parakore te mea e whakatau ana i te whakamahinga, ā, ko te kounga o te rā te mea matua
Ko te silicon polycrystalline, he momo silicon taketake, he mea tito mai i ngā kirikiri tioata me ngā whakatakotoranga tioata rerekē, ā, ka purea te nuinga mā te tukatuka silicon ahumahi. Ko te āhua o te polysilicon he hina kanapa whakarewa, ā, ko te ira rewa he 1410℃. Kāore e mahi i te pāmahana rūma, ā, he kaha ake i te āhua rewa. He āhuatanga semiconductor te Polysilicon, ā, he rauemi semiconductor tino nui, he pai hoki, engari he iti noa ngā poke ka pā ki tōna kawe hiko. He maha ngā tikanga whakarōpū mō te polysilicon. Haunga te whakarōpūtanga kua whakahuatia ake nei e ai ki ngā paerewa ā-motu o Haina, e toru atu ngā tikanga whakarōpūtanga nui kua whakaurua ki konei. E ai ki ngā whakaritenga me ngā whakamahinga parakore rerekē, ka taea te wehewehe i te polysilicon ki te polysilicon taumata-rā me te polysilicon taumata-hiko. Ko te polysilicon taumata-rā te nuinga e whakamahia ana i roto i te hanga pūtau photovoltaic, ko te polysilicon taumata-hiko ia e whakamahia whānuitia ana i roto i te umanga ara iahiko whakauru hei rauemi mata mō ngā maramara me ētahi atu hanga. Ko te parakore o te polysilicon taumata-rā he 6~8N, arā, me iti iho i te 10 -6 te tapeke o te poke, ā, me eke te parakore o te polysilicon ki te 99.9999%, neke atu rānei. He tino pakari ake ngā whakaritenga parakore mō te polysilicon taumata-hiko, me te iti rawa o te 9N me te mōrahi o nāianei o te 12N. He tino uaua te hanga polysilicon taumata-hiko. He iti noa ngā umanga Haina kua mōhio ki te hangarau hanga polysilicon taumata-hiko, ā, kei te whakawhirinaki tonu rātou ki ngā kawemai. I tēnei wā, he nui ake te putanga o te polysilicon taumata-rā i te polysilicon taumata-hiko, ā, ko te tuatahi he 13.8 ngā wā i tērā o muri.
E ai ki te rerekētanga o ngā poke tāpiri me te momo kawe hiko o te rauemi silicon, ka taea te wehewehe ki te momo-P me te momo-N. Ina tāpirihia te silicon ki ngā huānga poke kaiwhiwhi, pērā i te boron, te konumohe, te gallium, me ētahi atu, ka nui ake te kawe hiko, ā, he momo-P. Ina tāpirihia te silicon ki ngā huānga poke kaituku, pērā i te phosphorus, te arsenic, te antimony, me ētahi atu, ka nui ake te kawe hiko, ā, he momo-N. Ko ngā pākahiko momo-P ko ngā pākahiko BSF me ngā pākahiko PERC. I te tau 2021, ka nui ake i te 91% o te mākete o te ao ngā pākahiko PERC, ā, ka whakakorehia ngā pākahiko BSF. I te wā e whakakapia ana e te PERC te BSF, kua piki ake te whai huatanga o te hurihanga o ngā pūtau momo-P mai i raro iho i te 20% ki te neke atu i te 23%, e tata ana ki te whakatata atu ki te rohenga o runga ariā o te 24.5%, ko te rohenga o runga ariā o ngā pūtau momo-N he 28.7%, ā, he nui te whai huatanga o te hurihanga o ngā pūtau momo-N. Nā ngā painga o te ōwehenga mata-rua teitei me te tauwehenga pāmahana iti, kua tīmata ngā kamupene ki te whakatinana i ngā raina whakaputa papatipu mō ngā pākahiko momo-N. E ai ki te matapae a te CPIA, ka piki ake te ōwehenga o ngā pākahiko momo-N mai i te 3% ki te 13.4% i te tau 2022. E matapaetia ana i roto i ngā tau e rima e whai ake nei, ka tīmata te whakawhiti mai i te pākahiko momo-N ki te pākahiko momo-P. E ai ki te kounga o te mata rerekē, ka taea te wehewehe ki te rauemi matotoru, te rauemi kāpeti me te rauemi korara. Ko te mata o te rauemi matotoru te iti rawa o te kōpiko, iti iho i te 5mm, kāore he rerekētanga tae, kāore he paparanga waikura, ā, ko te utu teitei rawa; He pakupaku te mata o te rauemi kāpeti, 5-20mm, he pakupaku te wāhanga, ā, he waenga te utu; ko te mata o te rauemi korara he pakupaku rawa atu, he nui ake i te 20mm te hohonu, he wetewete te wāhanga, ā, ko te utu te mea iti rawa. Ko te rauemi matotoru te nuinga o te wā e whakamahia ana hei kukume i te silicon monocrystalline, ko te rauemi kāpeti me te rauemi korara te nuinga o te wā e whakamahia ana hei hanga i ngā papa silicon polycrystalline. I roto i te mahi whakaputa o ia rā a ngā umanga, ka taea te tāpiri i te rauemi matotoru ki te 30% o te rauemi kāpeti hei whakaputa i te silicon monocrystalline. Ka taea te penapena i te utu o ngā rauemi mata, engari mā te whakamahi i te rauemi kāpeti ka whakaiti i te pai o te kukume tioata ki tētahi taumata. Me whiriwhiri e ngā umanga te ōwehenga tāpiri tika i muri i te paunatia o ngā mea e rua. Nō nā tata nei, kua pumau te rerekētanga utu i waenga i te rauemi matotoru me te rauemi kāpeti ki te 3 RMB /kg. Mena ka whānui ake te rerekētanga utu, ka whakaaro pea ngā kamupene ki te tāpiri atu i te rauemi kāpeti ki te kukume silicon monocrystalline.
3. Tukanga: Ko te tikanga Siemens te mea nui rawa atu, ā, ko te whakapaunga hiko te mea nui ki te huringa hangarau
E rua ngā wāhanga o te tukanga whakaputa polysilicon. I te wāhanga tuatahi, ka tauhohehia te paura silicon ahumahi ki te hauwai konupūmā korewai hei hanga i te trichlorosilane me te hauwai. Whai muri i te whakahoro me te purenga, ka puta he hau trichlorosilane, dichlorodihydrosilicon me te silane; ko te wāhanga tuarua ko te whakaiti i te hau parakore kua whakahuatia ake nei ki te silicon tioata, ā, he rerekē te wāhanga whakaiti i roto i te tikanga Siemens whakarerekētia me te tikanga moenga wai silane. He hangarau whakaputa pakari te tikanga Siemens whakapai ake me te kounga hua teitei, ā, koinei te hangarau whakaputa e whakamahia whānuitia ana i tēnei wā. Ko te tikanga whakaputa tuku iho a Siemens ko te whakamahi i te chlorine me te hauwai hei hanga i te hauwai konupūmā korewai, te hauwai konupūmā me te paura silicon ahumahi hei hanga i te trichlorosilane i tētahi pāmahana, kātahi ka wehea, ka whakatikatikahia, ka purea. Ka pāngia te silicon e te tauhohenga whakaiti wera i roto i te oumu whakaiti hauwai hei hanga i te silicon huānga kua whakatakotoria ki te matua silicon. I runga i tēnei kaupapa, kua rite hoki te tukanga Siemens kua whakapaitia ki tētahi tukanga tautoko mō te hangarua i te nui o ngā hua taha pērā i te hauwai, te hauwai pūhaumāota, me te silicon tetrachloride i hangaia i roto i te tukanga whakaputa, tae atu ki te hangarau whakaora hau hiku whakaiti me te hangarau whakamahi anō silicon tetrachloride. Ka wehea te hauwai, te hauwai pūhaumāota, te trichlorosilane, me te silicon tetrachloride i roto i te hau putanga mā te whakaora maroke. Ka taea te whakamahi anō i te hauwai me te hauwai pūhaumāota mō te hanga me te purenga me te trichlorosilane, ā, ka hangarua tika te trichlorosilane ki te whakaiti wera. Ka mahia te purenga i roto i te oumu, ā, ka hauwaitia te silicon tetrachloride hei whakaputa i te trichlorosilane, ka taea te whakamahi mō te purenga. Ka kiia hoki tēnei taahiraa ko te maimoatanga hauwai matao. Mā te whakatinana i te whakaputanga porowhita-kati, ka taea e ngā umanga te whakaiti nui i te kai o ngā rauemi mata me te hiko, ā, ka penapena pai i ngā utu whakaputa.
Ko te utu mō te hanga polysilicon mā te whakamahi i te tikanga Siemens whakapai ake i Haina ko ngā rauemi mata, te whakapaunga pūngao, te whakahekenga uara, ngā utu tukatuka, me ētahi atu. Nā te ahunga whakamua hangarau i roto i te umanga kua tino heke te utu. Ko ngā rauemi mata e pā ana ki te silicon ahumahi me te trichlorosilane, ko te whakapaunga pūngao ko te hiko me te mamaoa, ā, ko ngā utu tukatuka e pā ana ki ngā utu tirotiro me te whakatika i ngā taputapu whakaputa. E ai ki ngā tatauranga a Baichuan Yingfu mō ngā utu whakaputa polysilicon i te tīmatanga o Hune 2022, ko ngā rauemi mata te tūemi utu nui rawa atu, e 41% o te utu katoa, ko te silicon ahumahi te pūtake matua o te silicon. Ko te whakamahinga o te waeine silicon e whakamahia whānuitia ana i roto i te umanga e tohu ana i te nui o te silicon e pau ana mō ia waeine o ngā hua silicon tino parakore. Ko te tikanga tatau ko te huri i ngā rauemi katoa kei roto te silicon pērā i te paura silicon ahumahi me te trichlorosilane i tukuna ki waho ki te silicon parakore, kātahi ka tangohia te chlorosilane i tukuna ki waho e ai ki te nui o te silicon parakore i hurihia mai i te ōwehenga ihirangi silicon. E ai ki ngā raraunga CPIA, ka heke te taumata o te whakamahinga silicon mā te 0.01 kg/kg-Si ki te 1.09 kg/kg-Si i te tau 2021. E matapaetia ana, mā te whakapai ake i te maimoatanga hauwai makariri me te hangarua hua taha, ka heke ki te 1.07 kg/kg i te tau 2030. kg-Si. E ai ki ngā tatauranga kāore anō kia oti, ko te whakamahinga silicon o ngā kamupene Hainamana e rima o runga i te umanga polysilicon he iti iho i te toharite o te umanga. E mōhiotia ana e rua o rātou ka whakamahi i te 1.08 kg/kg-Si me te 1.05 kg/kg-Si i te tau 2021. Ko te tuarua o ngā ōwehenga teitei ko te whakamahinga pūngao, e 32% te katoa, ko te hiko te 30% o te utu katoa, e tohu ana he mea nui tonu te utu hiko me te whai hua mō te hanga polysilicon. Ko ngā tohu matua e rua hei ine i te whai hua o te hiko ko te whakamahinga hiko whānui me te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko. Ko te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko e pā ana ki te tukanga whakaiti i te trichlorosilane me te hauwai hei whakaputa rauemi silicon parakore. Kei roto i te whakamahinga hiko te whakamahana me te whakatakotoranga o te matua silicon, te tiaki wera, te whakangawari i te mutunga me ētahi atu whakamahinga hiko tukanga. I te tau 2021, me te ahunga whakamua hangarau me te whakamahinga whānui o te pūngao, ka heke te toharite whakamahinga hiko whānui o te hanga polysilicon mā te 5.3% ia tau ki te 63kWh/kg-Si, ā, ka heke te toharite whakamahinga hiko whakaiti mā te 6.1% ia tau ki te 46kWh/kg-Si, e matapaetia ana ka heke tonu i te heke mai. . Hei tāpiri, he mea nui anō hoki te whakahekenga uara, e 17%. He mea tika kia mōhio, e ai ki ngā raraunga a Baichuan Yingfu, ko te tapeke o te utu whakaputa o te polysilicon i te tīmatanga o Hune 2022 he tata ki te 55,816 yuan/tana, ko te utu toharite o te polysilicon i te mākete he tata ki te 260,000 yuan/tana, ā, ko te tawhē hua nui he teitei ki te 70% neke atu rānei, nō reira i kukume mai ai i te tini o ngā Pakihi ki te haumi ki te hanganga o te kaha whakaputa polysilicon.
E rua ngā huarahi mā ngā kaihanga polysilicon ki te whakaiti i ngā utu, ko tētahi ko te whakaiti i ngā utu rauemi mata, ā, ko tētahi ko te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko. Mō ngā rauemi mata, ka taea e ngā kaihanga te whakaiti i te utu o ngā rauemi mata mā te hainatanga i ngā whakaaetanga mahi tahi mō te wā roa me ngā kaihanga silicon ahumahi, mā te hanga rānei i te kaha whakaputa whakauru i waenganui i te taha whakarunga me te taha whakararo. Hei tauira, ko ngā tipu whakaputa polysilicon e whakawhirinaki ana ki tā rātou ake tuku silicon ahumahi. Mō te whakamahinga hiko, ka taea e ngā kaihanga te whakaiti i ngā utu hiko mā te whakaiti i ngā utu hiko me te whakapai ake i te whakamahinga pūngao whānui. Tata ki te 70% o te whakamahinga hiko whānui ko te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko, ā, ko te whakaiti he hononga matua hoki i roto i te whakaputanga o te silicon tioata parakore teitei. Nō reira, ko te nuinga o te kaha whakaputa polysilicon i Haina e arohia ana ki ngā rohe he iti ngā utu hiko pērā i a Xinjiang, Mongolia o Roto, Sichuan me Yunnan. Heoi, me te whakatairanga i te kaupapa here waro-rua, he uaua ki te whiwhi i te nui o ngā rauemi hiko iti te utu. Nō reira, ko te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko hei whakaiti i te whakamahinga he huarahi whai hua ake hei whakaiti i ngā utu i ēnei rā. I tēnei wā, ko te huarahi whai hua ki te whakaiti i te whakapaunga hiko whakaiti ko te whakanui ake i te maha o ngā matua silicon i roto i te oumu whakaiti, kia whānui ake ai te putanga o tētahi waeine kotahi. I tēnei wā, ko ngā momo oumu whakaiti matua i Haina he 36 ngā takirua tokotoko, 40 ngā takirua tokotoko, me te 48 ngā takirua tokotoko. Kua whakahoutia te momo oumu ki te 60 ngā takirua tokotoko me te 72 ngā takirua tokotoko, engari i te wa ano, ka whakatairangahia hoki e ia ngā whakaritenga teitei ake mō te taumata hangarau whakaputa o ngā umanga.
Ki te whakataurite ki te tikanga Siemens kua whakapaitia, e toru ngā painga o te tikanga moenga wai silane, ko tētahi he iti te whakamahinga hiko, ko tētahi he nui te kaha kume karaihe, ā, ko te tuatoru he pai ake te whakakotahi me te hangarau CCZ tonu Czochralski matatau ake. E ai ki ngā raraunga o te Peka Ahumahi Silicon, ko te whakamahinga hiko whānui o te tikanga moenga wai silane he 33.33% o te tikanga Siemens kua whakapaitia, ā, ko te whakaiti i te whakamahinga hiko he 10% o te tikanga Siemens kua whakapaitia. He nui ngā painga whakamahinga hiko o te tikanga moenga wai silane. Mō te kume karaihe, mā ngā āhuatanga ā-tinana o te silicon granular ka māmā ake te whakakī katoa i te oko quartz i roto i te hononga tokotoko kume karaihe kotahi. Ka taea e te silicon polycrystalline me te silicon granular te whakanui ake i te kaha utu o te oko oumu kotahi mā te 29%, me te whakaiti i te wā utu mā te 41%, ka whakapai ake i te pai o te kume o te silicon tioata kotahi. Hei tāpiri, he iti te diameter o te silicon granular me te pai o te rere, he pai ake mō te tikanga CCZ tonu Czochralski. I tēnei wā, ko te hangarau matua o te kukume i te tioata kotahi i waenganui me raro ko te tikanga whakarewa anō i te tioata kotahi RCZ, arā, ko te whāngai anō me te kukume i te tioata i muri i te kukume i te tokotoko silicon tioata kotahi. Ka mahia te kukume i te wā kotahi, ka penapena i te wā whakamatao o te tokotoko silicon tioata kotahi, nō reira ka teitei ake te whai huatanga o te whakaputa. Mā te whanaketanga tere o te tikanga Czochralski tonu a CCZ ka piki ake te hiahia mō te silicon granular. Ahakoa he ngoikoretanga o te silicon granular, pērā i te nui ake o te paura silicon i puta mai i te waku, te whānui o te mata me te ngāwari o te mimiti o ngā poke, me te hauwai i honoa ki te hauwai i te wā rewa, he ngāwari ki te pekepeke, engari e ai ki ngā panuitanga hou a ngā umanga silicon granular e tika ana, kei te whakapai ake i ēnei raruraru, ā, kua puta ētahi ahunga whakamua.
Kua pakari te tukanga moenga wai silane i Ūropi me te Hononga o Amerika, ā, kei tōna tīmatanga tonu i muri i te whakaurunga mai o ngā umanga Haina. I te tekau tau atu i 1980, ka tīmata ngā kamupene silicon granular o tāwāhi, arā, a REC me MEMC, ki te tūhura i te hanga silicon granular, ā, ka tutuki te hanga nui. I roto i aua mea, ko te kaha hanga silicon granular a REC i eke ki te 10,500 tana/tau i te tau 2010, ā, ki te whakataurite ki ōna hoa Siemens i taua wā anō, he painga utu neke atu i te US$2-3/kg. Nā te hiahia ki te kukume tioata kotahi, ka noho pūmau te hanga silicon granular a te kamupene, ā, i mutu te hanga, ā, ka tahuri ki te mahi tahi me Haina ki te whakatū i tētahi umanga hanga hei whakauru atu ki te hanga silicon granular.
4. Rauemi Mata: Ko te silicon ahumahi te rauemi mata matua, ā, ka taea e te tuku te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o te whakawhānui polysilicon
Ko te silicon ahumahi te rauemi matua mō te hanga polysilicon. E matapaetia ana ka piki haere tonu te whakaputanga silicon ahumahi o Haina mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025. Mai i te tau 2010 ki te 2021, kei te wāhanga whānui te whakaputanga silicon ahumahi o Haina, me te tere tipu ā-tau toharite o te kaha whakaputa me te putanga e eke ana ki te 7.4% me te 8.6%. E ai ki ngā raraunga SMM, ko te pikinga houte kaha whakaputa silicon ahumahii Haina ka 890,000 tana me te 1.065 miriona tana i te tau 2022 me te 2023. Mēnā ka mau tonu te tere whakamahi kaha me te tere whakahaere o ngā kamupene silicon ahumahi ki te 60% i te heke mai, kua piki ake te tere o Hainamā te kaha whakaputa i te tau 2022 me te tau 2023 ka piki ake te putanga o te 320,000 tāne me te 383,000 tāne. E ai ki ngā whakatau tata a GFCI,Ko te kaha whakaputa silicon ahumahi o Haina i te 22/23/24/25 tata ki te 5.90/697/6.71/6.5 miriona tana, e rite ana ki te 3.55/391/4.18/4.38 miriona tana.
He puhoi te tere tipu o ngā rohe e rua e toe ana o te silicon ahumahi kua tāpirihia, ā, ka taea e te hanga silicon ahumahi o Haina te whakatutuki i te hanga o te polysilicon. I te tau 2021, ko te kaha hanga silicon ahumahi o Haina ka eke ki te 5.385 miriona tana, e rite ana ki te putanga o te 3.213 miriona tana, ko te polysilicon, te silicon waro, me ngā koranu konumohe ka pau i te 623,000 tana, 898,000 tana, me te 649,000 tana. Hei tāpiri, tata ki te 780,000 tana o te putanga ka whakamahia mō te Kaweake. I te tau 2021, ko te kai o te polysilicon, te silicon waro, me ngā koranu konumohe ka eke ki te 19%, 28%, me te 20% o te silicon ahumahi. Mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025, e matapaetia ana ka noho tonu te tere tipu o te hanga silicon waro ki te 10%, ā, ko te tere tipu o te hanga koranu konumohe he iti iho i te 5%. Nō reira, e whakapono ana mātou he nui te nui o te silicon ahumahi ka taea te whakamahi mō te polysilicon i te tau 2022-2025, ā, ka taea te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o te hanga polysilicon.
5. Te tuku Polysilicon:Hainakei te noho hei tūranga matua, ā, ka āta kohikohi te whakaputanga ki ngā umanga matua
I ngā tau tata nei, kua piki ake te hanga polysilicon o te ao i ia tau, ā, kua piki haere i Haina. Mai i te tau 2017 ki te 2021, kua piki ake te hanga polysilicon ā-tau o te ao mai i te 432,000 tana ki te 631,000 tana, ko te tipu tere rawa atu i te tau 2021, me te tere tipu o te 21.11%. I roto i tēnei wā, kua āta arotahi te hanga polysilicon o te ao ki Haina, ā, kua piki ake te ōwehenga o te hanga polysilicon o Haina mai i te 56.02% i te tau 2017 ki te 80.03% i te tau 2021. Ki te whakataurite i ngā kamupene tekau o runga i te kaha hanga polysilicon o te ao i te tau 2010 me te 2021, ka kitea kua piki ake te maha o ngā kamupene Haina mai i te 4 ki te 8, ā, kua tino heke te ōwehenga o te kaha hanga o ētahi kamupene o Amerika me Kōrea, kua taka ki waho o ngā tīma tekau o runga, pērā i a HEMOLOCK, OCI, REC me MEMC; Kua tino piki ake te kukū o te umanga, ā, kua piki ake te katoa o te kaha whakaputa o ngā kamupene tekau o runga o te umanga mai i te 57.7% ki te 90.3%. I te tau 2021, e rima ngā kamupene Haina e neke atu ana i te 10% o te kaha whakaputa, arā, ko te katoa o te 65.7%. E toru ngā take matua mō te whakawhiti āta haere o te umanga polysilicon ki Haina. Tuatahi, he nui ngā painga o ngā kaihanga polysilicon Hainamana e pā ana ki ngā rauemi mata, te hiko me ngā utu mahi. He iti ake ngā utu o ngā kaimahi i ērā o ngā whenua ke, nō reira he iti ake te utu whakaputa katoa i Haina i ērā o ngā whenua ke, ā, ka heke tonu me te ahunga whakamua o te hangarau; tuarua, kei te whakapai tonu te kounga o ngā hua polysilicon Hainamana, ko te nuinga kei te taumata karaehe tuatahi o te rā, ā, ko ngā umanga matatau takitahi kei roto i ngā whakaritenga parakore. Kua puta ngā whanaketanga i roto i te hangarau whakaputa o te polysilicon karaehe hiko teitei ake, e ārahi ana i te whakakapinga o te polysilicon karaehe hiko ā-rohe mō ngā kawemai, ā, kei te kaha te whakatairanga a ngā umanga matua Haina i te hanganga o ngā kaupapa polysilicon karaehe hiko. Neke atu i te 95% o te katoa o te ao te putanga whakaputa o ngā anga silicon i Haina, ā, kua piki haere te tere o te polysilicon ki Haina, ā, kua pēhia te mākete o ngā umanga polysilicon o tāwāhi ki tētahi taumata.
Mai i te tau 2017 ki te tau 2021, ka piki haere tonu te putanga ā-tau o te polysilicon i Haina, ko te nuinga i ngā rohe whai rawa hiko pēnei i a Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, me Sichuan. I te tau 2021, ka piki ake te hanga polysilicon a Haina mai i te 392,000 tana ki te 505,000 tana, he pikinga 28.83%. Mō te kaha whakaputa, ko te kaha whakaputa polysilicon a Haina kei te piki haere tonu, engari kua heke i te tau 2020 nā te kati o ētahi kaihanga. Hei tāpiri, kua piki haere tonu te reiti whakamahinga kaha o ngā umanga polysilicon Hainamana mai i te tau 2018, ā, ko te reiti whakamahinga kaha i te tau 2021 ka eke ki te 97.12%. Mō ngā kawanatanga, ko te hanga polysilicon a Haina i te tau 2021 kei ngā rohe he iti ngā utu hiko pēnei i a Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, me Sichuan. Ko te nui o te hinu i whakaputaina e Xinjiang he 270,400 tana, he nui atu i te haurua o te katoa o ngā hinu i whakaputaina e Haina.
Ko te ahumahi polysilicon o Haina he mea e kitea ana i te taumata tiketike o te kukū, me te uara CR6 o te 77%, ā, ka piki ake anō te ia o te heke mai. He ahumahi te hanga polysilicon me te nui o te whakapaipai me ngā arai hangarau teitei. Ko te huringa hanga me te whakaputa kaupapa he rua tau, neke atu rānei. He uaua ki ngā kaihanga hou te uru atu ki te ahumahi. Mai i te whakawhanuitanga kua whakamaheretia me ngā kaupapa hou i roto i ngā tau e toru e whai ake nei, ka haere tonu ngā kaihanga takitahi i roto i te ahumahi ki te whakawhanui i ō rātou kaha whakaputa mā te hangarau me ngā painga tauine, ā, ka piki tonu tō rātou tūranga monopoli.
E matapaetia ana ka puta he tipu nui mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025 i te tuku polysilicon a Haina, ā, ka eke te hanga polysilicon ki te 1.194 miriona tana i te tau 2025, ka akiaki i te whānui o te tauine hanga polysilicon o te ao. I te tau 2021, me te pikinga tere o te utu o te polysilicon i Haina, kua haumi ngā kaihanga nui ki te hanganga o ngā raina whakaputa hou, ā, i te wa ano ka kukume mai i ngā kaihanga hou ki te whakauru atu ki te umanga. I te mea ka roa te mahi kaupapa polysilicon i te iti rawa i te kotahi me te hawhe ki te rua tau mai i te hanganga ki te whakaputa, ka oti te hanga hou i te tau 2021. Ko te nuinga o te wā ka whakauruhia te kaha whakaputa ki te whakaputa i te haurua tuarua o te tau 2022 me te 2023. He tino rite tēnei ki ngā mahere kaupapa hou i panuitia e ngā kaihanga nui i tēnei wā. Ko te kaha whakaputa hou i te tau 2022-2025 ka aro nui ki te tau 2022 me te 2023. Whai muri i tēnā, i te mea ka pumau haere te tuku me te tono o te polysilicon me te utu, ka pumau haere te kaha whakaputa katoa i roto i te umanga. Ki raro, arā, ka heke haere te tere tipu o te kaha whakaputa. Hei tāpiri, kua noho tonu te tere whakamahi kaha o ngā umanga polysilicon ki te taumata teitei i ngā tau e rua kua pahure ake nei, engari ka roa te wā kia piki ake ai te kaha whakaputa o ngā kaupapa hou, ā, me whai tukanga kia mōhio ai ngā tāngata hou ki te hangarau whakarite e tika ana. Nō reira, ka iti te tere whakamahi kaha o ngā kaupapa polysilicon hou i ngā tau torutoru e whai ake nei. Mai i tēnei, ka taea te matapae i te hanga polysilicon i te tau 2022-2025, ā, e matapaetia ana ko te hanga polysilicon i te tau 2025 ka tata ki te 1.194 miriona tana.
He tino teitei te kukū o te kaha whakaputa o tāwāhi, ā, ko te tere me te tere o te pikinga o te whakaputa i roto i ngā tau e toru e whai ake nei kāore e rite te teitei ki tā Haina. Ko te kaha whakaputa polysilicon o tāwāhi e arotahi ana ki ngā kamupene matua e whā, ā, ko te toenga he iti te kaha whakaputa. Mō te kaha whakaputa, ko te haurua o te kaha whakaputa polysilicon o tāwāhi kei Wacker Chem. Ko ana wheketere i Tiamana me te Hononga o Amerika he 60,000 tana me te 20,000 tana. Ko te whānui tere o te kaha whakaputa polysilicon o te ao i te tau 2022 me tua atu ka puta pea he āwangawanga mō te nui rawa o te tuku, kei te tatari tonu te kamupene, ā, kāore anō kia whakamahere ki te tāpiri i ngā kaha whakaputa hou. Kei te neke haere te kamupene nui o te polysilicon o Kōrea ki te Tonga, a OCI, i tana raina whakaputa polysilicon papa-rā ki Mareia, me te pupuri tonu i te raina whakaputa polysilicon papa-hiko taketake i Haina, e whakamaheretia ana kia eke ki te 5,000 tana i te tau 2022. Ka eke te kaha whakaputa a OCI i Mareia ki te 27,000 tana me te 30,000 tana i te tau 2020 me te 2021, ka tutuki ai ngā utu iti o te whakapaunga pūngao me te karo i ngā taripa teitei a Haina mō te polysilicon i te United States me Korea ki te Tonga. Kei te whakamahere te kamupene ki te whakaputa 95,000 tana engari kāore i te mārama te rā tīmatanga. E matapaetia ana ka piki ake i te taumata 5,000 tana ia tau i roto i ngā tau e whā e whai ake nei. E rua ngā turanga whakaputa a te kamupene Nōwei, a REC, i te kawanatanga o Washington me Montana, USA, me te kaha whakaputa ā-tau o te 18,000 tana o te polysilicon papa-rā me te 2,000 tana o te polysilicon papa-hiko. I roto a REC i te raruraru pūtea nui, ā, i whiriwhiria e ia te whakamutu i te whakaputanga, ā, nā te pikinga o ngā utu polysilicon i te tau 2021, ka whakatau te kamupene ki te tīmata anō i te whakaputanga o te 18,000 tana o ngā kaupapa i te kawanatanga o Washington me te 2,000 tana i Montana i te mutunga o te tau 2023, ā, ka taea te whakaoti i te whakanui ake i te kaha whakaputa i te tau 2024. Ko Hemlock te kaihanga polysilicon nui rawa atu i te United States, e tohunga ana ki te polysilicon hiko-kounga teitei. Nā ngā arai hangarau teitei ki te whakaputanga ka uaua te whakakapi i ngā hua a te kamupene i te mākete. I te taha o te meka kāore te kamupene e whakamahere ki te hanga kaupapa hou i roto i ētahi tau, e matapaetia ana ko te kaha whakaputa a te kamupene ko te 2022-2025. Ka noho tonu te putanga ā-tau ki te 18,000 tana. Hei tāpiri, i te tau 2021, ko te kaha whakaputa hou o ngā kamupene ehara i ngā kamupene e whā i runga ake nei ko te 5,000 tana. Nā te kore o te mārama ki ngā mahere whakaputa a ngā kamupene katoa, e whakaarohia ana i konei ko te kaha whakaputa hou ka 5,000 tana ia tau mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025.
E ai ki te kaha whakaputa o tāwāhi, e kiia ana ko te hanga polysilicon o tāwāhi i te tau 2025 ka tata ki te 176,000 tana, me te whakaaro kei te kore e rerekē te tere whakamahinga o te kaha whakaputa polysilicon o tāwāhi. Whai muri i te pikinga nui o te utu o te polysilicon i te tau 2021, kua whakanuia e ngā kamupene Haina te whakaputanga me te whakawhānui i te whakaputanga. He rerekē, he tupato ake ngā kamupene o tāwāhi i roto i ā rātou mahere mō ngā kaupapa hou. Nā te mea kua noho te mana o te umanga polysilicon ki raro i te mana o Haina, ā, ko te whakanui matapo i te whakaputanga ka puta he mate. Mai i te taha utu, ko te whakapaunga pūngao te wāhanga nui rawa atu o te utu o te polysilicon, nō reira he mea tino nui te utu o te hiko, ā, he mārama ngā painga o Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan me ētahi atu rohe. Mai i te taha tono, hei te hekenga tika o te polysilicon, neke atu i te 99% o te katoa o te ao te hanga wafer silicon o Haina. Ko te umanga hekenga o te polysilicon kei Haina te nuinga o te wā. He iti te utu o te polysilicon i hangaia, he iti te utu kawe, ā, kua tino whakamanahia te tono. Tuarua, kua whakatakotohia e Haina ngā utu whakaheke-tukunga teitei mō ngā kawemai o te polysilicon kounga-rā mai i te Hononga o Amerika me Kōrea ki te Tonga, ā, kua tino pehi tēnei i te kai o te polysilicon mai i te Hononga o Amerika me Kōrea ki te Tonga. Kia tūpato ki te hanga kaupapa hou; hei tāpiri, i ngā tau tata nei, kua puhoi te whanaketanga o ngā umanga polysilicon Hainamana ki tāwāhi nā te pānga o ngā utu whakaheke, ā, kua whakaitihia, kua katihia rānei ētahi raina whakaputa, ā, kua heke haere tō rātou ōwehenga i roto i te whakaputanga o te ao i ia tau, nō reira kāore e taea te whakarite ki te pikinga o ngā utu polysilicon i te tau 2021 i te mea he nui ngā hua o te kamupene Haina, kāore ngā āhuatanga pūtea i te rawaka hei tautoko i tōna tere me te whānui o te kaha whakaputa.
I runga i ngā matapae mō te hanga polysilicon i Haina me tāwāhi mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025, ka taea te whakarapopoto i te uara matapae o te hanga polysilicon o te ao. E kiia ana ka eke te hanga polysilicon o te ao i te tau 2025 ki te 1.371 miriona tana. E ai ki te uara matapae o te hanga polysilicon, ka taea te whiwhi tata i te wāhi o Haina i te ōwehenga o te ao. E matapaetia ana ka piki haere te wāhi o Haina mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2025, ā, ka neke atu i te 87% i te tau 2025.
6, Whakarāpopototanga me te Tirohanga
Kei raro iho i te silicon ahumahi te Polysilicon, ā, kei runga ake i te mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic me te semiconductor katoa, ā, he mea tino nui tōna mana. Ko te mekameka ahumahi photovoltaic he polysilicon-silicon wafer-cell-module-photovoltaic te kaha tāuta, ā, ko te mekameka ahumahi semiconductor he polysilicon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-chip. He rerekē ngā whakaritenga mō te parakore o te polysilicon mō ngā whakamahinga rerekē. Ko te ahumahi photovoltaic e whakamahi ana i te polysilicon taumata-rā, ā, ko te ahumahi semiconductor e whakamahi ana i te polysilicon taumata-hiko. Ko te awhe parakore o te tuatahi he 6N-8N, ko te tuarua e hiahia ana kia 9N, neke atu rānei.
Mō ngā tau maha, ko te tukanga whakaputa matua o te polysilicon ko te tikanga Siemens kua whakapaitia puta noa i te ao. I ngā tau tata nei, kua kaha te tūhura a ētahi kamupene i te tikanga moenga wai silane iti ake te utu, ka pā pea tēnei ki te tauira whakaputa. Ko te polysilicon āhua-tokotoko i hangaia e te tikanga Siemens whakarerekētia he āhuatanga o te whakapaunga pūngao nui, te utu nui me te parakore teitei, ko te silicon granular i hangaia e te tikanga moenga wai silane he āhuatanga o te whakapaunga pūngao iti, te utu iti me te parakore iti. Kua mōhio ētahi kamupene Haina ki te whakaputanga papatipu o te silicon granular me te hangarau o te whakamahi i te silicon granular ki te tango i te polysilicon, engari kāore anō kia whānuitia te whakatairanga. Ko te kaha o te silicon granular ki te whakakapi i te mea o mua i te heke mai, kei runga i te kaha o te utu ki te hipoki i te ngoikoretanga kounga, te pānga o ngā tono o muri mai, me te whakapainga o te haumaru silane. I ngā tau tata nei, kua piki ake te whakaputanga polysilicon o te ao i ia tau, ā, kua huihui haere ki Haina. Mai i te tau 2017 ki te tau 2021, ka piki ake te hanga polysilicon ā-tau o te ao mai i te 432,000 tana ki te 631,000 tana, ā, ko te tipu tere rawa atu i te tau 2021. I roto i taua wā, ka piki haere te hanga polysilicon o te ao ki Haina, ā, ka piki ake te ōwehenga o te hanga polysilicon i Haina mai i te 56.02% i te tau 2017 ki te 80.03% i te tau 2021. Mai i te tau 2022 ki te tau 2025, ka puta he tipu nui mai i te tuku o te polysilicon. E kiia ana ko te hanga polysilicon i te tau 2025 ka eke ki te 1.194 miriona tana i Haina, ā, ko te hanga i tāwāhi ka eke ki te 176,000 tana. Nō reira, ko te hanga polysilicon o te ao i te tau 2025 ka tata ki te 1.37 miriona tana.
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