1. Unyolo wa makampani a Polysilicon: Njira yopangira ndi yovuta, ndipo pansi pake imayang'ana kwambiri pa ma semiconductor a photovoltaic
Polysilicon imapangidwa makamaka kuchokera ku silicon yamafakitale, chlorine ndi hydrogen, ndipo ili pamwamba pa unyolo wa mafakitale a photovoltaic ndi semiconductor. Malinga ndi deta ya CPIA, njira yodziwika bwino yopangira polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi ndi njira yosinthidwa ya Siemens, kupatula China, yoposa 95% ya polysilicon imapangidwa ndi njira yosinthidwa ya Siemens. Pokonzekera polysilicon ndi njira yabwino ya Siemens, choyamba, mpweya wa chlorine umaphatikizidwa ndi mpweya wa hydrogen kuti upange hydrogen chloride, kenako umayanjana ndi ufa wa silicon pambuyo pophwanya ndi kupukuta silicon yamafakitale kuti upange trichlorosilane, yomwe imachepetsedwanso ndi mpweya wa hydrogen kuti ipange polysilicon. Polycrystalline silicon imatha kusungunuka ndikuziziritsidwa kuti ipange ma ingot a polycrystalline silicon, ndipo monocrystalline silicon imathanso kupangidwa ndi Czochralski kapena zone melting. Poyerekeza ndi polycrystalline silicon, single crystal silicon imapangidwa ndi tinthu ta crystal tomwe tili ndi crystal orientation yofanana, kotero imakhala ndi magetsi abwino komanso mphamvu yosinthira. Ma polycrystalline silicon ingots ndi monocrystalline silicon rods zitha kudulidwanso ndikukonzedwa kukhala ma silicon wafers ndi ma cell, zomwe zimakhala zigawo zofunika kwambiri za ma photovoltaic modules ndipo zimagwiritsidwa ntchito mu photovoltaic field. Kuphatikiza apo, ma single crystal silicon wafers amathanso kupangidwa kukhala ma silicon wafers powapera mobwerezabwereza, kupukuta, epitaxy, kuyeretsa ndi njira zina, zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito ngati zinthu zoyambira zida zamagetsi za semiconductor.
Kuchuluka kwa zinthu zodetsedwa za polysilicon ndikofunikira kwambiri, ndipo makampaniwa ali ndi makhalidwe monga ndalama zambiri zogulira komanso zopinga zambiri zaukadaulo. Popeza kuyera kwa polysilicon kudzakhudza kwambiri njira yojambulira silicon imodzi ya kristalo, zofunikira za kuyera ndizokhwima kwambiri. Kuyera kochepa kwa polysilicon ndi 99.9999%, ndipo kwakukulu kwambiri kuli pafupi ndi 100%. Kuphatikiza apo, miyezo ya dziko la China imayika patsogolo zofunikira za zinthu zodetsedwa, ndipo kutengera izi, polysilicon imagawidwa m'magulu I, II, ndi III, omwe kuchuluka kwa boron, phosphorous, mpweya ndi kaboni ndi chizindikiro chofunikira kwambiri. "Mikhalidwe Yofikira Makampani a Polysilicon" ikunena kuti mabizinesi ayenera kukhala ndi njira yowunikira komanso yoyang'anira yabwino, ndipo miyezo ya zinthu ikutsatira miyezo ya dziko lonse; Kuphatikiza apo, mikhalidwe yopezera zinthu imafunanso kuchuluka ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwa makampani opanga polysilicon, monga polysilicon yamagetsi, yamagetsi. Kukula kwa polojekitiyi ndi kwakukulu kuposa matani 3000 pachaka ndi matani 1000 pachaka, ndipo chiŵerengero chochepa cha ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pomanga ndi kumanganso ndi kukulitsa mapulojekiti sikuyenera kutsika kuposa 30%, kotero polysilicon ndi kampani yomwe imagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri. Malinga ndi ziwerengero za CPIA, mtengo wogulira zida zopangira polysilicon ya matani 10,000 zomwe zidayamba kugwira ntchito mu 2021 zakwera pang'ono kufika pa 103 miliyoni yuan/kt. Chifukwa chake ndi kukwera kwa mitengo yazinthu zachitsulo. Akuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wogulira mtsogolo udzakwera ndi kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo wa zida zopangira ndi kuchepa kwa monomer pamene kukula kukukwera. Malinga ndi malamulo, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwa polysilicon pakuchepetsa kwa Czochralski yamagetsi ndi yamagetsi kuyenera kukhala kochepera 60 kWh/kg ndi 100 kWh/kg motsatana, ndipo zofunikira pazizindikiro zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu ndizokhwima. Kupanga polysilicon nthawi zambiri kumakhala kwa makampani opanga mankhwala. Njira yopangira ndi yovuta kwambiri, ndipo malire a njira zaukadaulo, kusankha zida, kuyitanitsa ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ndi okwera. Njira yopangira imakhala ndi machitidwe ambiri ovuta a mankhwala, ndipo chiwerengero cha ma node owongolera ndi choposa 1,000. N'zovuta kwa oyamba kumene. Mwachangu amadziwa luso laukadaulo lokhwima. Chifukwa chake, pali zopinga zazikulu za ndalama ndi zaukadaulo mumakampani opanga polysilicon, zomwe zimalimbikitsanso opanga polysilicon kuti achite bwino kwambiri njira yoyendetsera, kulongedza ndi kunyamula.
2. Kugawa kwa Polysilicon: kuyera kumatsimikiza kagwiritsidwe ntchito, ndipo mtundu wa dzuwa umatenga gawo lalikulu
Silikoni ya polycrystalline, mtundu wa silicon yoyambira, imapangidwa ndi tinthu ta kristalo tokhala ndi mawonekedwe osiyanasiyana a kristalo, ndipo imayeretsedwa kwambiri ndi silicon yopangidwa ndi mafakitale. Kuwoneka kwa polysilicon ndi imvi yachitsulo yowala, ndipo malo osungunuka ndi pafupifupi 1410℃. Sigwira ntchito kutentha kwa chipinda ndipo imagwira ntchito kwambiri mu mkhalidwe wosungunuka. Polysilicon ili ndi makhalidwe a semiconductor ndipo ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri komanso chabwino kwambiri cha semiconductor, koma kuchuluka kochepa kwa zonyansa kungakhudze kwambiri kuyendetsa kwake. Pali njira zambiri zogawa polysilicon. Kuphatikiza pa gulu lomwe latchulidwa pamwambapa malinga ndi miyezo ya dziko la China, njira zina zitatu zofunika kwambiri zogawa zikuyambitsidwa pano. Malinga ndi zofunikira ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana za kuyera, polysilicon ikhoza kugawidwa m'magulu a polysilicon ya solar-grade ndi polysilicon ya electronic-grade. Polysilicon ya solar-grade imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri popanga maselo a photovoltaic, pomwe polysilicon ya electronic-grade imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri mumakampani ophatikizana ngati zopangira ma chips ndi zopangira zina. Kuyera kwa polysilicon yamagetsi ndi 6~8N, ndiko kuti, kuchuluka konse kwa zinthu zodetsedwa kumafunika kukhala kochepera 10 -6, ndipo kuyera kwa polysilicon kuyenera kufika 99.9999% kapena kuposerapo. Zofunikira za kuyera kwa polysilicon yamagetsi ndi zokhwima kwambiri, ndi osachepera 9N ndipo pakali pano ndi 12N. Kupanga polysilicon yamagetsi ndi kovuta. Pali makampani ochepa aku China omwe adziwa bwino ukadaulo wopanga polysilicon yamagetsi, ndipo akadali odalira kwambiri zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja. Pakadali pano, kutulutsa kwa polysilicon yamagetsi ndi kwakukulu kwambiri kuposa kwa polysilicon yamagetsi, ndipo yoyamba ndi pafupifupi nthawi 13.8 kuposa yachiwiri.
Malinga ndi kusiyana kwa zinthu zodetsa doping ndi mtundu wa conductivity wa zinthu za silicon, zitha kugawidwa m'magulu a P-type ndi N-type. Pamene silicon yaphatikizidwa ndi zinthu zodetsa zovomerezeka, monga boron, aluminium, gallium, ndi zina zotero, imayendetsedwa ndi hole conduction ndipo ndi P-type. Pamene silicon yaphatikizidwa ndi zinthu zodetsa zoperekedwa ndi donor, monga phosphorus, arsenic, antimony, ndi zina zotero, imayendetsedwa ndi electron conduction ndipo ndi N-type. Mabatire a P-type makamaka amaphatikizapo mabatire a BSF ndi mabatire a PERC. Mu 2021, mabatire a PERC adzakhala oposa 91% ya msika wapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo mabatire a BSF adzachotsedwa. Munthawi yomwe PERC ikusintha BSF, mphamvu yosinthira ya maselo amtundu wa P yakwera kuchoka pa 20% kufika pa 23%, zomwe zatsala pang'ono kufika pa 24.5%, pomwe malire apamwamba a maselo amtundu wa N ndi 28.7%, ndipo maselo amtundu wa N ali ndi mphamvu yosinthira kwambiri. Chifukwa cha ubwino wa chiŵerengero chapamwamba cha bifacial ndi kutentha kochepa, makampani ayamba kugwiritsa ntchito mizere yopangira mabatire amtundu wa N. Malinga ndi zomwe CPIA yaneneratu, chiwerengero cha mabatire amtundu wa N chidzakwera kwambiri kuchokera pa 3% mpaka 13.4% mu 2022. Zikuyembekezeka kuti m'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi, kubwerezabwereza kwa batire yamtundu wa N kupita ku batire yamtundu wa P kudzayambitsidwa. Malinga ndi mtundu wosiyana wa pamwamba, ikhoza kugawidwa m'zinthu zokhuthala, zinthu za kolifulawa ndi zinthu za coral. Pamwamba pa zinthu zokhuthala pali digiri yotsika kwambiri ya concavity, yosakwana 5mm, palibe kusiyana kwa mtundu, palibe oxidation interlayer, komanso mtengo wapamwamba kwambiri; Pamwamba pa zinthu za kolifulawa pali kupindika pang'ono, 5-20mm, gawolo ndi laling'ono, ndipo mtengo wake ndi wapakati; pomwe pamwamba pa zinthu za kolifulawa pali kupindika kwakukulu, Kuzama kwake ndi kwakukulu kuposa 20mm, gawolo ndi lotayirira, ndipo mtengo wake ndi wotsika kwambiri. Zinthu zokhuthala zimagwiritsidwa ntchito makamaka kukoka monocrystalline silicon, pomwe zinthu za kolifulawa ndi zinthu za kolifulawa zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri popanga ma wafers a polycrystalline silicon. Pakupanga tsiku ndi tsiku kwa mabizinesi, zinthu zokhuthala zimatha kuwonjezeredwa ndi zinthu zosachepera 30% za kolifulawa kuti apange monocrystalline silicon. Mtengo wa zinthu zopangira ukhoza kusungidwa, koma kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu za kolifulawa kudzachepetsa mphamvu yokoka ya kristalo mpaka pamlingo winawake. Mabizinesi ayenera kusankha chiŵerengero choyenera cha doping atayeza ziwirizi. Posachedwapa, kusiyana kwa mitengo pakati pa zinthu zokhuthala ndi zinthu za kolifulawa kwakhazikika pa 3 RMB /kg. Ngati kusiyana kwa mitengo kukukulirakulira, makampani angaganizire zogwiritsa ntchito kwambiri zinthu za kolifulawa pokoka monocrystalline silicon.
3. Njira: Njira ya Siemens imatenga gawo lalikulu, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kumakhala chinsinsi cha kusintha kwaukadaulo
Njira yopangira polysilicon imagawidwa m'magawo awiri. Mu gawo loyamba, ufa wa silicon wa mafakitale umasinthidwa ndi hydrogen chloride yopanda madzi kuti mupeze trichlorosilane ndi hydrogen. Pambuyo poyeretsedwa mobwerezabwereza ndi kutsukidwa, trichlorosilane ya gaseous, dichlorodihydrosilicon ndi Silane; gawo lachiwiri ndikuchepetsa mpweya woyera kwambiri womwe watchulidwa pamwambapa kukhala silicon yoyera, ndipo gawo lochepetsa limasiyana mu njira yosinthidwa ya Siemens ndi njira yosinthira madzi ya silane. Njira yosinthidwa ya Siemens ili ndi ukadaulo wopanga wokhwima komanso wabwino kwambiri, ndipo pakadali pano ndi ukadaulo wopanga womwe umagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri. Njira yachikhalidwe yopangira ya Siemens ndikugwiritsa ntchito chlorine ndi hydrogen kupanga hydrogen chloride yopanda madzi, hydrogen chloride ndi silicon yamafuta yamafuta kuti apange trichlorosilane pa kutentha kwina, kenako ndikulekanitsa, kukonza ndikuyeretsa trichlorosilane. Silicon imadutsa mu kutentha kwa ng'anjo yochepetsera hydrogen kuti ipeze silicon yoyambira yomwe ili pa silicon core. Pachifukwa ichi, njira yabwino ya Siemens ilinso ndi njira yothandizira kubwezeretsanso zinthu zambiri monga hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, ndi silicon tetrachloride zomwe zimapangidwa popanga, makamaka kuphatikiza kuchepetsa kuchira kwa mpweya wam'mbuyo ndi ukadaulo wogwiritsanso ntchito silicon tetrachloride. Hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, trichlorosilane, ndi silicon tetrachloride mu mpweya wotulutsa utsi zimalekanitsidwa ndi kuchira kouma. Hydrogen ndi hydrogen chloride zitha kugwiritsidwanso ntchito popanga ndi kuyeretsa ndi trichlorosilane, ndipo trichlorosilane imabwezeretsedwanso mwachindunji kuti ichepetse kutentha. Kuyeretsa kumachitika mu uvuni, ndipo silicon tetrachloride imasinthidwa kuti ipange trichlorosilane, yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito poyeretsa. Gawoli limatchedwanso chithandizo chozizira cha hydrogenation. Popanga kupanga kotsekedwa, mabizinesi amatha kuchepetsa kwambiri kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zopangira ndi magetsi, motero amasunga ndalama zopangira.
Mtengo wopanga polysilicon pogwiritsa ntchito njira yabwino ya Siemens ku China umaphatikizapo zinthu zopangira, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu, kuchepa kwa mtengo, ndalama zokonzera, ndi zina zotero. Kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo m'makampani kwachepetsa mtengo kwambiri. Zinthu zopangira makamaka zimatanthauza silicon ya mafakitale ndi trichlorosilane, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kumaphatikizapo magetsi ndi nthunzi, ndipo ndalama zokonzera zimatanthauza ndalama zowunikira ndi kukonza zida zopangira. Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Baichuan Yingfu pa ndalama zopangira polysilicon kumayambiriro kwa Juni 2022, zinthu zopangira ndiye chinthu chokwera mtengo kwambiri, chomwe chimapanga 41% ya mtengo wonse, womwe silicon ya mafakitale ndiye gwero lalikulu la silicon. Kugwiritsa ntchito silicon unit komwe kumagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri mumakampani kumayimira kuchuluka kwa silicon yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito pa unit iliyonse ya zinthu za silicon zoyera kwambiri. Njira yowerengera ndikusintha zinthu zonse zokhala ndi silicon monga ufa wa silicon wa mafakitale wopangidwa kunja ndi trichlorosilane kukhala silicon yoyera, kenako kuchotsa chlorosilane yopangidwa kunja malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa silicon yoyera yosinthidwa kuchokera ku chiŵerengero cha kuchuluka kwa silicon. Malinga ndi deta ya CPIA, kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa silicon kudzatsika ndi 0.01 kg/kg-Si kufika pa 1.09 kg/kg-Si mu 2021. Zikuyembekezeka kuti chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mankhwala ozizira a hydrogenation ndi kubwezeretsanso zinthu zina, zikuyembekezeka kuchepa kufika pa 1.07 kg/kg pofika chaka cha 2030. kg-Si. Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa silicon kwa makampani asanu apamwamba aku China mumakampani opanga polysilicon ndi kotsika kuposa avareji yamakampani. Zikudziwika kuti awiri mwa iwo adzagwiritsa ntchito 1.08 kg/kg-Si ndi 1.05 kg/kg-Si motsatana mu 2021. Gawo lachiwiri lalikulu kwambiri ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu, lomwe ndi 32% yonse, pomwe magetsi ndi 30% ya mtengo wonse, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti mtengo wamagetsi ndi magwiridwe antchito akadali zinthu zofunika kwambiri pakupanga polysilicon. Zizindikiro ziwiri zazikulu zoyezera kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu mokwanira komanso kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pang'ono kumatanthauza njira yochepetsera trichlorosilane ndi hydrogen kuti apange zinthu za silicon zoyera kwambiri. Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kumaphatikizapo kutentha ndi kuyika kwa silicon core. , kusunga kutentha, mpweya wabwino kumapeto ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zina. Mu 2021, ndi kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu mokwanira, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwathunthu kwa polysilicon kudzachepa ndi 5.3% pachaka kufika pa 63kWh/kg-Si, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pang'ono kwapakati kudzachepa ndi 6.1% pachaka kufika pa 46kWh/kg-Si, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuchepa kwambiri mtsogolo. . Kuphatikiza apo, kuchepa kwa mtengo ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pamtengo, chomwe chimapanga 17%. Ndikofunika kudziwa kuti, malinga ndi deta ya Baichuan Yingfu, mtengo wonse wopanga polysilicon kumayambiriro kwa Juni 2022 unali pafupifupi 55,816 yuan/tani, mtengo wapakati wa polysilicon pamsika unali pafupifupi 260,000 yuan/tani, ndipo phindu lonse linali lalikulu mpaka 70% kapena kuposerapo, kotero zidakopa Makampani ambiri omwe amaika ndalama pakupanga polysilicon.
Pali njira ziwiri zomwe opanga polysilicon angachepetsere ndalama, imodzi ndikuchepetsa ndalama zopangira, ndipo ina ndikuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Ponena za zipangizo zopangira, opanga amatha kuchepetsa mtengo wa zipangizo zopangira mwa kusaina mapangano a mgwirizano wa nthawi yayitali ndi opanga silicon m'mafakitale, kapena kumanga mphamvu zopangira zophatikizana. Mwachitsanzo, mafakitale opanga polysilicon amadalira kwambiri silicon yawoyawo m'mafakitale. Ponena za kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi, opanga amatha kuchepetsa ndalama zamagetsi pogwiritsa ntchito mitengo yotsika yamagetsi komanso kukonza mphamvu zonse. Pafupifupi 70% ya magetsi onse omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito magetsi, ndipo kuchepetsa ndi njira yofunika kwambiri popanga silicon yoyera kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, mphamvu zambiri zopangira polysilicon ku China zimakhazikika m'madera omwe ali ndi mitengo yotsika yamagetsi monga Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan ndi Yunnan. Komabe, ndi kupita patsogolo kwa mfundo za kaboni ziwiri, n'zovuta kupeza mphamvu zambiri zotsika mtengo. Chifukwa chake, kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kuti muchepetse ndi njira yochepetsera ndalama yomwe ingatheke masiku ano. Way. Pakadali pano, njira yothandiza yochepetsera kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa ndikuwonjezera kuchuluka kwa ma silicon cores mu ng'anjo yochepetsera, potero kukulitsa kutulutsa kwa unit imodzi. Pakadali pano, mitundu yayikulu ya ng'anjo yochepetsera ku China ndi ma peya 36 a ndodo, ma peya 40 a ndodo ndi ma peya 48 a ndodo. Mtundu wa ng'anjo umasinthidwa kukhala ma peya 60 a ndodo ndi ma peya 72 a ndodo, koma nthawi yomweyo, umayikanso patsogolo zofunikira zapamwamba pamlingo waukadaulo wopanga wa mabizinesi.
Poyerekeza ndi njira yabwino ya Siemens, njira ya silane fluidized bed ili ndi zabwino zitatu, imodzi ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa, ina ndi kutulutsa kwapamwamba kwa kristalo, ndipo yachitatu ndi yakuti ndi yabwino kwambiri kuphatikiza ndi ukadaulo wapamwamba kwambiri wa CCZ continuous Czochralski. Malinga ndi deta ya Silicon Industry Branch, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwathunthu kwa njira ya silane fluidized bed ndi 33.33% ya njira yabwino ya Siemens, ndipo kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndi 10% ya njira yabwino ya Siemens. Njira ya silane fluidized bed ili ndi ubwino waukulu wogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu. Ponena za kukoka kwa kristalo, mawonekedwe enieni a silicon ya granular angapangitse kuti zikhale zosavuta kudzaza quartz crucible mu single crystal silicon pulling rod link. Polycrystalline silicon ndi granular silicon zimatha kuwonjezera mphamvu ya single furnace crucible charging ndi 29%, pomwe kuchepetsa nthawi yochaja ndi 41%, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti silicon ya single crystal igwire bwino ntchito. Kuphatikiza apo, granular silicon ili ndi mainchesi ang'onoang'ono komanso kusinthasintha kwabwino, komwe ndikoyenera kwambiri njira ya CCZ continuous Czochralski. Pakadali pano, ukadaulo waukulu wokokera kristalo imodzi pakati ndi pansi ndi njira ya RCZ single crystal re-casting, yomwe ndi kudyetsanso ndikukoka kristaloyo pambuyo poti ndodo imodzi ya silicon yakokedwa. Kujambula kumachitika nthawi yomweyo, zomwe zimasunga nthawi yozizira ya ndodo imodzi ya silicon ya kristalo, kotero kuti kupanga bwino kumakhala kokwera. Kukula mwachangu kwa njira ya CCZ continuous Czochralski kudzawonjezera kufunikira kwa silicon ya granular. Ngakhale silicon ya granular ili ndi zovuta zina, monga ufa wambiri wa silicon wopangidwa ndi kukangana, malo akuluakulu komanso kulowetsedwa mosavuta kwa zoipitsa, ndi haidrojeni kuphatikizana kukhala haidrojeni panthawi yosungunuka, zomwe ndizosavuta kuyambitsa kudumpha, koma malinga ndi zomwe zalengezedwa posachedwapa ndi makampani oyenerera a silicon ya granular, mavutowa akuwongoleredwa ndipo kupita patsogolo kwachitika.
Njira yopangira silane fluidized bed yakula ku Europe ndi ku United States, ndipo ili pachiyambi chake pambuyo poti mabizinesi aku China ayamba. Kale m'ma 1980, silicon yakunja yoyimiridwa ndi REC ndi MEMC inayamba kufufuza kupanga silicon ya granular ndipo inapanga kupanga kwakukulu. Pakati pawo, mphamvu yonse ya REC yopanga silicon ya granular inafika matani 10,500 pachaka mu 2010, ndipo poyerekeza ndi Siemens yomweyi panthawi yomweyi, inali ndi phindu la ndalama zosachepera US$2-3/kg. Chifukwa cha zosowa za kukoka kristalo kamodzi, kupanga silicon ya granular ya kampaniyo kunayima ndipo pamapeto pake kunayimitsa kupanga, ndipo inayamba mgwirizano ndi China kuti ikhazikitse kampani yopanga kuti ipange silicon ya granular.
4. Zipangizo zopangira: Silikoni ya mafakitale ndiye chinthu chofunikira kwambiri popanga zinthu zopangira, ndipo zinthuzo zimatha kukwaniritsa zosowa za polysilicon expansion.
Silikoni ya mafakitale ndiye chinthu chofunikira kwambiri popanga polysilicon. Zikuyembekezeka kuti zokolola za silikoni ya mafakitale ku China zikukula pang'onopang'ono kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025. Kuyambira 2010 mpaka 2021, zokolola za silikoni ya mafakitale ku China zili mu gawo lokulitsa, ndipo kuchuluka kwapakati pa kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira ndi zotulutsa pachaka kufika pa 7.4% ndi 8.6%, motsatana. Malinga ndi deta ya SMM, kuchuluka kwatsopano kumeneku kwawonjezeka.mphamvu yopanga silicon ya mafakitaleku China kudzakhala matani 890,000 ndi matani 1.065 miliyoni mu 2022 ndi 2023. Poganiza kuti makampani opanga ma silicon apitilizabe kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndi kuchuluka kwa ntchito kwa pafupifupi 60% mtsogolomu, ku China kwawonjezeka kumene.Mphamvu yopangira mu 2022 ndi 2023 idzabweretsa kuwonjezeka kwa zokolola za matani 320,000 ndi matani 383,000. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera kwa GFCI,Mphamvu yopangira silikoni ya mafakitale ku China mu 22/23/24/25 ndi pafupifupi matani 5.90/697/6.71/6.5 miliyoni, zomwe zikufanana ndi matani 3.55/391/4.18/4.38 miliyoni.
Kukula kwa madera awiri otsala a silicon yamafakitale yopangidwa ndi superimposed kuli pang'onopang'ono, ndipo kupanga silicon yamafakitale ku China kumatha kukwaniritsa kupanga polysilicon. Mu 2021, mphamvu yopanga silicon yamafakitale ku China idzakhala matani 5.385 miliyoni, zomwe zikugwirizana ndi kutulutsa matani 3.213 miliyoni, zomwe polysilicon, silicon yachilengedwe, ndi aluminiyamu zidzadya matani 623,000, matani 898,000, ndi matani 649,000 motsatana. Kuphatikiza apo, pafupifupi matani 780,000 a zotulutsa amagwiritsidwa ntchito kutumiza kunja. Mu 2021, kugwiritsa ntchito polysilicon, silicon yachilengedwe, ndi aluminiyamu kudzawerengera 19%, 28%, ndi 20% ya silicon yamafakitale, motsatana. Kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, kukula kwa kupanga silicon yachilengedwe kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe pafupifupi 10%, ndipo kukula kwa kupanga aluminiyamu ndi kotsika kuposa 5%. Chifukwa chake, tikukhulupirira kuti kuchuluka kwa silicon yamafakitale komwe kungagwiritsidwe ntchito pa polysilicon mu 2022-2025 ndikokwanira, komwe kungakwaniritse zosowa za polysilicon.
5. Kupereka kwa Polysilicon:Chinaali ndi udindo waukulu, ndipo kupanga pang'onopang'ono kumasonkhana m'mabizinesi otsogola
M'zaka zaposachedwapa, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse kwawonjezeka chaka ndi chaka, ndipo pang'onopang'ono kwasonkhana ku China. Kuyambira 2017 mpaka 2021, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse pachaka kwakwera kuchoka pa matani 432,000 kufika pa matani 631,000, ndi kukula kofulumira kwambiri mu 2021, ndi kuchuluka kwa 21.11%. Munthawi imeneyi, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi pang'onopang'ono kunafika ku China, ndipo gawo la kupanga polysilicon ku China linakwera kuchoka pa 56.02% mu 2017 kufika pa 80.03% mu 2021. Poyerekeza makampani khumi apamwamba kwambiri omwe ali ndi mphamvu zopanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi mu 2010 ndi 2021, zitha kupezeka kuti chiwerengero cha makampani aku China chakwera kuchoka pa 4 kufika pa 8, ndipo gawo la mphamvu zopanga makampani ena aku America ndi aku Korea latsika kwambiri, kuchoka pa magulu khumi apamwamba, monga HEMOLOCK, OCI, REC ndi MEMC; Kuchuluka kwa makampani opanga zinthu kwawonjezeka kwambiri, ndipo mphamvu zonse zopangira zinthu za makampani khumi apamwamba mumakampani opanga zinthu zawonjezeka kuchoka pa 57.7% mpaka 90.3%. Mu 2021, pali makampani asanu aku China omwe ali ndi mphamvu zoposa 10% ya mphamvu zopangira zinthu, zomwe ndi 65.7%. Pali zifukwa zitatu zazikulu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti makampani opanga zinthu za polysilicon apitirire pang'onopang'ono kupita ku China. Choyamba, opanga zinthu za polysilicon aku China ali ndi ubwino waukulu pankhani ya zipangizo zopangira, magetsi ndi ndalama zogwirira ntchito. Malipiro a ogwira ntchito ndi otsika kuposa a mayiko akunja, kotero mtengo wonse wopanga zinthu ku China ndi wotsika kwambiri kuposa wa mayiko akunja, ndipo upitiliza kuchepa ndi kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo; chachiwiri, mtundu wa zinthu za polysilicon zaku China ukukula nthawi zonse, zomwe zambiri mwa izo zili pamlingo woyamba wa kalasi ya dzuwa, ndipo makampani apamwamba payekhapayekha ali muzofunikira za kuyera. Kupita patsogolo kwachitika muukadaulo wopanga zinthu za polysilicon zapamwamba zamagetsi, pang'onopang'ono kumabweretsa kusintha kwa polysilicon yamagetsi yakunyumba m'malo mwa zinthu zotumizidwa kunja, ndipo makampani otsogola aku China akulimbikitsa kwambiri ntchito yomanga mapulojekiti a polysilicon amagetsi. Kupanga kwa ma wafer a silicon ku China kuli ndi zoposa 95% ya kupanga konse padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zawonjezera pang'onopang'ono kuchuluka kwa polysilicon ku China, zomwe zachepetsa msika wa mabizinesi akunja a polysilicon mpaka pamlingo winawake.
Kuyambira mu 2017 mpaka 2021, kuchuluka kwa polysilicon ku China kudzawonjezeka pang'onopang'ono, makamaka m'madera omwe ali ndi mphamvu zambiri monga Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, ndi Sichuan. Mu 2021, kupanga polysilicon ku China kudzakwera kuchoka pa matani 392,000 kufika pa matani 505,000, kuwonjezeka kwa 28.83%. Ponena za mphamvu zopangira, mphamvu zopangira polysilicon ku China zakhala zikukwera, koma zatsika mu 2020 chifukwa cha kutsekedwa kwa opanga ena. Kuphatikiza apo, kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwa mabizinesi aku China a polysilicon kwakhala kukukwera mosalekeza kuyambira 2018, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu mu 2021 kudzafika pa 97.12%. Ponena za madera, kupanga polysilicon ku China mu 2021 kumachitika makamaka m'madera omwe ali ndi mitengo yotsika yamagetsi monga Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, ndi Sichuan. Chuma cha Xinjiang ndi matani 270,400, zomwe ndi zoposa theka la chuma chonse cha China.
Makampani opanga polysilicon ku China amadziwika ndi kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri, zomwe zimakhala ndi CR6 ya 77%, ndipo padzakhala kukwera kwina mtsogolo. Kupanga polysilicon ndi makampani omwe ali ndi ndalama zambiri komanso zopinga zambiri zaukadaulo. Nthawi yomanga ndi kupanga mapulojekiti nthawi zambiri imakhala zaka ziwiri kapena kuposerapo. N'zovuta kuti opanga atsopano alowe mumakampaniwa. Poganizira za kukulitsa komwe kumadziwika kuti kukukonzekera komanso mapulojekiti atsopano m'zaka zitatu zikubwerazi, opanga oligopolistic mumakampaniwa apitiliza kukulitsa mphamvu zawo zopangira chifukwa cha ukadaulo wawo komanso zabwino zawo, ndipo udindo wawo wokhawokha upitiliza kukwera.
Akuti kuchuluka kwa polysilicon ku China kudzabweretsa kukula kwakukulu kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, ndipo kupanga polysilicon kudzafika matani 1.194 miliyoni mu 2025, zomwe zikuyendetsa kukula kwa kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi. Mu 2021, chifukwa cha kukwera kwakukulu kwa mtengo wa polysilicon ku China, opanga akuluakulu ayika ndalama pomanga mizere yatsopano yopangira, ndipo nthawi yomweyo adakopa opanga atsopano kuti alowe nawo mumakampaniwa. Popeza mapulojekiti a polysilicon atenga osachepera chaka chimodzi ndi theka mpaka ziwiri kuchokera pakupanga mpaka kupanga, kumanga kwatsopano mu 2021 kudzamalizidwa. Mphamvu yopangira nthawi zambiri imayikidwa mu kupanga mu theka lachiwiri la 2022 ndi 2023. Izi zikugwirizana kwambiri ndi mapulani atsopano a projekiti omwe adalengezedwa ndi opanga akuluakulu pakadali pano. Mphamvu yatsopano yopangira mu 2022-2025 imayang'aniridwa kwambiri mu 2022 ndi 2023. Pambuyo pake, pamene kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa polysilicon ndi mtengo zikukhazikika pang'onopang'ono, mphamvu yonse yopangira mumakampaniyi idzakhazikika pang'onopang'ono. Kutsika, ndiko kuti, kukula kwa mphamvu zopangira kumachepa pang'onopang'ono. Kuphatikiza apo, kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zomwe makampani opanga polysilicon amagwiritsa ntchito kwakhalabe pamlingo wapamwamba m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, koma zitenga nthawi kuti mphamvu zopangira mapulojekiti atsopano zikwere, ndipo zitenga njira kuti atsopano aphunzire ukadaulo woyenera wokonzekera. Chifukwa chake, kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zomwe mapulojekiti atsopano opanga polysilicon amagwiritsa ntchito m'zaka zingapo zikubwerazi kudzakhala kochepa. Kuchokera pamenepa, kupanga polysilicon mu 2022-2025 kunganenedweratu, ndipo kupanga polysilicon mu 2025 kukuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi matani 1.194 miliyoni.
Kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zopangira zinthu kunja kwa dziko lapansi kuli kokwera kwambiri, ndipo liwiro ndi kuchuluka kwa kupanga zinthu m'zaka zitatu zikubwerazi sikudzakhala kokwera ngati kwa China. Mphamvu zopangira zinthu kunja kwa dziko lapansi makamaka m'makampani anayi otsogola, ndipo ena onse ndi ochepa kwambiri. Ponena za mphamvu zopangira zinthu, Wacker Chem ili ndi theka la mphamvu zopangira zinthu kunja kwa dziko lapansi za polysilicon. Mafakitale ake ku Germany ndi ku United States ali ndi mphamvu zopangira zinthu zokwana matani 60,000 ndi matani 20,000 motsatana. Kukula kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zopangira zinthu padziko lonse lapansi za polysilicon mu 2022 ndi kupitirira apo kungayambitse nkhawa ndi kuchuluka kwa zinthu, kampaniyo ikadali mu mkhalidwe wodikira ndipo sinakonzekere kuwonjezera mphamvu zatsopano zopangira. Kampani yayikulu ya polysilicon ku South Korea, OCI, ikusuntha pang'onopang'ono mzere wake wopanga polysilicon wamagetsi oyendera dzuwa kupita ku Malaysia pomwe ikusunga mzere woyamba wopanga polysilicon wamagetsi oyendera ku China, womwe ukukonzekera kufika matani 5,000 mu 2022. Mphamvu ya OCI yopanga ku Malaysia idzafika matani 27,000 ndi matani 30,000 mu 2020 ndi 2021, zomwe zingapangitse kuti ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu zikhale zochepa komanso kupewa mitengo yayikulu ya polysilicon ku China ku United States ndi South Korea. Kampaniyo ikukonzekera kupanga matani 95,000 koma tsiku loyambira silikudziwika. Ikuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka kufika matani 5,000 pachaka m'zaka zinayi zikubwerazi. Kampani yaku Norway, REC, ili ndi malo awiri opangira ku Washington ndi Montana, USA, ndi mphamvu yopangira matani 18,000 a polysilicon wamagetsi oyendera dzuwa ndi matani 2,000 a polysilicon wamagetsi oyendera magetsi pachaka. REC, yomwe inali pamavuto azachuma, inasankha kuyimitsa kupanga, kenako chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo ya polysilicon mu 2021, kampaniyo idaganiza zoyambiranso kupanga mapulojekiti okwana matani 18,000 ku boma la Washington ndi matani 2,000 ku Montana pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2023, ndipo ikhoza kumaliza kukweza mphamvu zopangira mu 2024. Hemlock ndiye wopanga wamkulu kwambiri wa polysilicon ku United States, yemwe amadziwika bwino ndi polysilicon yamagetsi yoyera kwambiri. Zopinga zaukadaulo wapamwamba pakupanga zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kuti zinthu za kampaniyo zisinthidwe pamsika. Kuphatikiza pa mfundo yakuti kampaniyo sikukonzekera kumanga mapulojekiti atsopano mkati mwa zaka zochepa, akuyembekezeka kuti mphamvu ya kampaniyo idzakhala 2022-2025. Zotulutsa pachaka zimakhalabe pa matani 18,000. Kuphatikiza apo, mu 2021, mphamvu yatsopano yopanga ya makampani ena kupatula makampani anayi omwe ali pamwambapa idzakhala matani 5,000. Chifukwa cha kusamvetsetsa mapulani opanga a makampani onse, akuti pano mphamvu yatsopano yopangira idzakhala matani 5,000 pachaka kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025.
Malinga ndi mphamvu zopangira zinthu kunja, akuti kupanga polysilicon kunja mu 2025 kudzakhala pafupifupi matani 176,000, poganiza kuti kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zopangira polysilicon kunja sikunasinthe. Pambuyo poti mtengo wa polysilicon wakwera kwambiri mu 2021, makampani aku China awonjezera kupanga ndi kukulitsa kupanga. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, makampani akunja akuyang'anitsitsa kwambiri mapulani awo a mapulojekiti atsopano. Izi zili choncho chifukwa chakuti kulamulira kwa makampani a polysilicon kuli kale m'manja mwa China, ndipo kuwonjezera kupanga mopanda nzeru kungabweretse kutayika. Kuchokera kumbali ya mtengo, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndiye gawo lalikulu kwambiri la mtengo wa polysilicon, kotero mtengo wamagetsi ndi wofunika kwambiri, ndipo Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan ndi madera ena ali ndi ubwino woonekeratu. Kuchokera kumbali yofunikira, monga momwe polysilicon imakhalira pansi, kupanga silicon wafer ku China kumaposa 99% ya dziko lonse lapansi. Makampani otsika a polysilicon makamaka amakhala ku China. Mtengo wa polysilicon wopangidwa ndi wotsika, mtengo woyendera ndi wotsika, ndipo kufunikira kuli kotsimikizika mokwanira. Kachiwiri, China yakhazikitsa mitengo yokwera kwambiri yotsutsana ndi kutaya zinthu pa zinthu zomwe zimagulitsidwa kunja kwa dziko la United States ndi South Korea, zomwe zachepetsa kwambiri kugwiritsa ntchito polysilicon kuchokera ku United States ndi South Korea. Samalani popanga mapulojekiti atsopano; kuphatikiza apo, m'zaka zaposachedwa, mabizinesi aku China ochokera kunja kwa dzikolo akhala akuchedwa kukula chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa mitengo, ndipo mizere ina yopangira yachepetsedwa kapena kutsekedwa, ndipo gawo lawo pakupanga padziko lonse lapansi lakhala likuchepa chaka ndi chaka, kotero sizingafanane ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya polysilicon mu 2021 chifukwa phindu lalikulu la kampani yaku China, momwe ndalama zilili sizikwanira kuthandizira kukula kwake mwachangu komanso kwakukulu kwa mphamvu zopangira.
Kutengera ndi zomwe zanenedweratu za kupanga polysilicon ku China ndi kunja kwa dziko kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, mtengo wonenedweratu wa kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi ukhoza kufotokozedwa mwachidule. Akuti kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi mu 2025 kudzafika matani 1.371 miliyoni. Malinga ndi zomwe zanenedweratu za kupanga polysilicon, gawo la China padziko lonse lapansi likhoza kupezeka pafupifupi. Akuyembekezeka kuti gawo la China lidzakula pang'onopang'ono kuyambira 2022 mpaka 2025, ndipo lidzapitirira 87% mu 2025.
6, Chidule ndi Kawonedwe
Polysilicon ili pansi pa silicon yamafakitale komanso pamwamba pa unyolo wonse wamakampani a photovoltaic ndi semiconductor, ndipo udindo wake ndi wofunika kwambiri. Unyolo wamakampani a photovoltaic nthawi zambiri umakhala ndi mphamvu yoyikidwa ya polysilicon-silicon wafer-cell-module-photovoltaic, ndipo unyolo wamakampani a semiconductor nthawi zambiri umakhala polysilicon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-chip. Ntchito zosiyanasiyana zimakhala ndi zofunikira zosiyanasiyana pa kuyera kwa polysilicon. Makampani a photovoltaic amagwiritsa ntchito polysilicon yamagetsi, ndipo makampani a semiconductor amagwiritsa ntchito polysilicon yamagetsi. Yoyamba ili ndi kuyera kwa 6N-8N, pomwe yomaliza imafuna kuyera kwa 9N kapena kuposerapo.
Kwa zaka zambiri, njira yodziwika bwino yopangira polysilicon yakhala njira yabwino kwambiri ya Siemens padziko lonse lapansi. M'zaka zaposachedwa, makampani ena akhala akufufuza mwachangu njira yotsika mtengo yopangira silane fluidized bed, zomwe zingakhudze kapangidwe kake. Polysilicon yooneka ngati ndodo yopangidwa ndi njira yosinthidwa ya Siemens ili ndi makhalidwe ogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu zambiri, mtengo wokwera komanso chiyero chachikulu, pomwe silicon yopangidwa ndi njira yopangira silane fluidized bed ili ndi makhalidwe ogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu zochepa, mtengo wotsika komanso chiyero chochepa. Makampani ena aku China azindikira kupanga kwakukulu kwa silicon yopyapyala komanso ukadaulo wogwiritsa ntchito silicon yopyapyala kukoka polysilicon, koma sizinalimbikitsidwe kwambiri. Ngati silicon yopyapyala ingalowe m'malo mwa yoyamba mtsogolo zimatengera ngati phindu la mtengo lingathe kuphimba vuto la khalidwe, zotsatira za kugwiritsa ntchito pansi, komanso kusintha kwa chitetezo cha silane. M'zaka zaposachedwa, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi kwawonjezeka chaka ndi chaka, ndipo pang'onopang'ono kumasonkhana ku China. Kuyambira mu 2017 mpaka 2021, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi pachaka kudzawonjezeka kuchoka pa matani 432,000 kufika pa matani 631,000, ndipo kukula kwachangu kwambiri mu 2021. Munthawi imeneyi, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi pang'onopang'ono kunayamba kufalikira ku China, ndipo gawo la kupanga polysilicon ku China linawonjezeka kuchoka pa 56.02% mu 2017 kufika pa 80.03% mu 2021. Kuyambira mu 2022 mpaka 2025, kupezeka kwa polysilicon kudzabweretsa kukula kwakukulu. Akuti kupanga polysilicon mu 2025 kudzakhala matani 1.194 miliyoni ku China, ndipo kupanga kunja kudzafika matani 176,000. Chifukwa chake, kupanga polysilicon padziko lonse mu 2025 kudzakhala pafupifupi matani 1.37 miliyoni.
(Nkhaniyi ndi yongogwiritsa ntchito makasitomala a UrbanMines okha ndipo sikupereka upangiri uliwonse wokhudza ndalama)