1. Sarkar masana'antar Polysilicon: Tsarin samarwa yana da sarkakiya, kuma ɓangaren da ke ƙasa ya mayar da hankali kan na'urorin lantarki na photovoltaic.
Ana samar da Polysilicon galibi daga silicon na masana'antu, chlorine da hydrogen, kuma yana sama da sarƙoƙin masana'antar photovoltaic da semiconductor. A cewar bayanan CPIA, hanyar samar da polysilicon ta yau da kullun a duniya ita ce hanyar Siemens da aka gyara, ban da China, fiye da kashi 95% na polysilicon ana samar da ita ta hanyar hanyar Siemens da aka gyara. A cikin tsarin shirya polysilicon ta hanyar ingantaccen hanyar Siemens, da farko, ana haɗa iskar chlorine da iskar hydrogen don samar da hydrogen chloride, sannan yana amsawa da foda na silicon bayan niƙa da niƙa silicon na masana'antu don samar da trichlorosilane, wanda iskar hydrogen ke ƙara ragewa don samar da polysilicon. Ana iya narke silicon na polycrystalline kuma a sanyaya don yin polycrystalline silicon ingots, kuma ana iya samar da monocrystalline silicon ta hanyar Czochralski ko narkewar yanki. Idan aka kwatanta da silicon polycrystalline, silicon na kristal guda ɗaya ya ƙunshi ƙwayoyin kristal tare da yanayin kristal iri ɗaya, don haka yana da ingantaccen watsa wutar lantarki da ingancin juyawa. Ana iya ƙara yankewa da sarrafa sandunan silicon polycrystalline guda biyu da sandunan silicon monocrystalline guda biyu zuwa wafers da ƙwayoyin silicon, waɗanda daga baya suka zama muhimman sassan na'urorin photovoltaic kuma ana amfani da su a fagen photovoltaic. Bugu da ƙari, wafers ɗin silicon guda ɗaya kuma ana iya ƙirƙirar wafers ɗin silicon ta hanyar niƙa, gogewa, epitaxy, tsaftacewa da sauran hanyoyin, waɗanda za a iya amfani da su azaman kayan substrate don na'urorin lantarki na semiconductor.
Ana buƙatar cikakken sinadarin polysilicon, kuma masana'antar tana da halaye na saka hannun jari mai yawa da kuma manyan shingen fasaha. Tunda tsarkin polysilicon zai yi tasiri sosai ga tsarin zana silicon mai lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya, buƙatun tsarki suna da tsauri sosai. Mafi ƙarancin tsarkin polysilicon shine 99.9999%, kuma mafi girman shine kusan 100%. Bugu da ƙari, ƙa'idodin ƙasa na China sun gabatar da ƙa'idodi bayyanannu don abubuwan da ke cikin ƙazanta, kuma bisa ga wannan, an raba polysilicon zuwa maki I, II, da III, wanda abun da ke cikin boron, phosphorus, oxygen da carbon muhimmin ma'auni ne na tunani. "Yanayin Samun damar Masana'antu na Polysilicon" ya tanadar da cewa dole ne kamfanoni su sami ingantaccen tsarin dubawa da gudanarwa, kuma ƙa'idodin samfura sun cika ƙa'idodin ƙasa; Bugu da ƙari, yanayin samun damar shiga yana buƙatar girma da amfani da makamashi na kamfanonin samar da polysilicon, kamar polysilicon mai ƙarfin hasken rana, mai ƙarfin lantarki. Girman aikin ya fi tan 3000/shekara da tan 1000/shekara bi da bi, kuma mafi ƙarancin rabon jari a cikin saka hannun jari na sabbin gine-gine da ayyukan sake ginawa da faɗaɗawa ba zai zama ƙasa da kashi 30% ba, don haka polysilicon masana'antu ne mai matuƙar jari. A cewar ƙididdigar CPIA, farashin saka hannun jari na kayan aikin samar da layin polysilicon mai nauyin tan 10,000 da aka fara aiki a 2021 ya ɗan ƙaru zuwa yuan miliyan 103/kt. Dalilin shine hauhawar farashin kayan ƙarfe mai yawa. Ana sa ran farashin saka hannun jari a nan gaba zai ƙaru tare da ci gaban fasahar samar da kayan aiki da raguwar monomer yayin da girman ke ƙaruwa. A cewar ƙa'idodi, amfani da wutar lantarki na polysilicon don rage Czochralski mai ƙarfin hasken rana da kuma rage wutar lantarki ya kamata ya zama ƙasa da kWh 60/kg da 100 kWh/kg bi da bi, kuma buƙatun alamun amfani da makamashi suna da tsauri. Samar da Polysilicon galibi yana cikin masana'antar sinadarai. Tsarin samarwa yana da rikitarwa, kuma matakin hanyoyin fasaha, zaɓin kayan aiki, aiwatarwa da aiki yana da yawa. Tsarin samarwa ya ƙunshi halayen sinadarai masu rikitarwa da yawa, kuma adadin hanyoyin sarrafawa ya fi 1,000. Yana da wahala ga sabbin shiga. Da sauri ya ƙware a fannin fasaha. Saboda haka, akwai manyan shingen jari da fasaha a masana'antar samar da polysilicon, wanda kuma ke haɓaka masana'antun polysilicon don aiwatar da ingantaccen ingantaccen fasaha na kwararar tsari, marufi da tsarin sufuri.
2. Rarraba Polysilicon: tsarki yana ƙayyade amfani, kuma matakin hasken rana ya mamaye babban abu
Silicon polycrystalline, wani nau'in silicon na elemental, an yi shi ne da ƙwayoyin kristal masu bambancin yanayin lu'ulu'u, kuma galibi ana tsarkake shi ta hanyar sarrafa silicon na masana'antu. Bayyanar polysilicon launin toka ne na ƙarfe, kuma wurin narkewar yana kusan 1410℃. Ba ya aiki a zafin ɗaki kuma yana aiki sosai a yanayin narkewa. Polysilicon yana da kaddarorin semiconductor kuma abu ne mai matuƙar mahimmanci kuma mai kyau na semiconductor, amma ƙaramin adadin ƙazanta na iya shafar tasirinsa sosai. Akwai hanyoyi da yawa na rarrabuwa don polysilicon. Baya ga rarrabuwar da aka ambata a sama bisa ga ƙa'idodin ƙasa na China, an gabatar da wasu mahimman hanyoyin rarrabuwa guda uku a nan. Dangane da buƙatu da amfani daban-daban na tsarki, ana iya raba polysilicon zuwa polysilicon na hasken rana da polysilicon na lantarki. Polysilicon na hasken rana galibi ana amfani da shi wajen samar da ƙwayoyin photovoltaic, yayin da polysilicon na lantarki ana amfani da shi sosai a masana'antar da'ira mai haɗawa azaman kayan aiki don guntu da sauran samarwa. Tsarkakakkiyar polysilicon mai matakin hasken rana ita ce 6~8N, wato, ana buƙatar jimlar ƙazanta ta kasance ƙasa da 10 -6, kuma tsarkin polysilicon dole ne ya kai 99.9999% ko fiye. Bukatun tsarki na polysilicon mai matakin lantarki sun fi tsauri, tare da mafi ƙarancin 9N da matsakaicin halin yanzu na 12N. Samar da polysilicon mai matakin lantarki yana da wahala. Akwai ƙananan kamfanonin China waɗanda suka ƙware a fasahar samar da polysilicon mai matakin lantarki, kuma har yanzu suna dogaro da shigo da kayayyaki. A halin yanzu, fitowar polysilicon mai matakin hasken rana ya fi girma fiye da na polysilicon mai matakin lantarki, kuma na farko ya ninka na na ƙarshe sau 13.8.
Dangane da bambancin ƙazanta na doping da nau'in conductivity na kayan silicon, ana iya raba shi zuwa nau'in P da N. Idan aka haɗa silicon da abubuwan ƙazanta masu karɓa, kamar boron, aluminum, gallium, da sauransu, yana mamaye hanyar hole conduction kuma nau'in P ne. Idan aka haɗa silicon da abubuwan ƙazanta masu bayarwa, kamar phosphorus, arsenic, antimony, da sauransu, yana mamaye hanyar electron conduction kuma nau'in N ne. Batirin P galibi ya haɗa da batirin BSF da batirin PERC. A shekarar 2021, batirin PERC zai ƙunshi fiye da kashi 91% na kasuwar duniya, kuma za a kawar da batirin BSF. A lokacin da PERC ta maye gurbin BSF, ingancin juyawar ƙwayoyin P ya ƙaru daga ƙasa da kashi 20% zuwa sama da kashi 23%, wanda zai kusan kai ga iyakar ka'idar kashi 24.5%, yayin da iyakar ka'idar ƙwayoyin N ta sama ita ce kashi 28.7%, kuma ƙwayoyin N suna da ingantaccen juyi mai yawa. Saboda fa'idodin babban rabo na fuska biyu da ƙarancin zafin jiki, kamfanoni sun fara tura layukan samar da taro don batirin nau'in N. A cewar hasashen CPIA, yawan batirin nau'in N zai ƙaru sosai daga kashi 3% zuwa 13.4% a shekarar 2022. Ana sa ran a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa, za a fara amfani da sake juyar da batirin nau'in N zuwa batirin nau'in P. Dangane da ingancin saman daban-daban, ana iya raba shi zuwa kayan da ke da yawa, kayan farin kabeji da kayan murjani. Fuskar kayan mai yawa tana da mafi ƙarancin matakin juyewa, ƙasa da 5mm, babu rashin daidaituwar launi, babu tsatsauran iskar shaka, da kuma mafi girman farashi; saman kayan farin kabeji yana da matsakaicin girman concavity, 5-20mm, sashin yana da matsakaici, kuma farashin yana da matsakaicin kewayon; yayin da saman kayan murjani yana da mafi girman concavity, Zurfin ya fi 20mm, sashin yana da sako-sako, kuma farashin shine mafi ƙanƙanta. Ana amfani da kayan mai yawa galibi don zana silicon monocrystalline, yayin da kayan farin kabeji da kayan murjani galibi ana amfani da su don yin wafers silicon polycrystalline. A cikin samar da kayayyaki na yau da kullun, ana iya haɗa kayan mai yawa da kayan farin kabeji ba ƙasa da 30% don samar da silicon monocrystalline ba. Ana iya adana farashin kayan masarufi, amma amfani da kayan farin kabeji zai rage ingancin jan kristal zuwa wani mataki. Kamfanoni suna buƙatar zaɓar rabon doping da ya dace bayan auna su biyun. Kwanan nan, bambancin farashi tsakanin kayan mai yawa da kayan farin kabeji ya daidaita a 3 RMB / kg. Idan bambancin farashi ya ƙara faɗaɗa, kamfanoni na iya la'akari da ƙara kayan farin kabeji a cikin jan silicon monocrystalline.
3. Tsarin aiki: Hanyar Siemens ta mamaye babban yanki, kuma amfani da wutar lantarki ya zama mabuɗin canjin fasaha
Tsarin samar da polysilicon ya kasu kashi biyu cikin uku. A mataki na farko, ana yin amfani da foda silicon na masana'antu tare da hydrogen chloride mai hana ruwa don samun trichlorosilane da hydrogen. Bayan tsaftacewa da tsaftacewa akai-akai, trichlorosilane mai hana ruwa, dichlorodihydrosilicon da Silane mai hana ruwa; mataki na biyu shine rage iskar gas mai tsafta da aka ambata a sama zuwa silicon mai hana ruwa, kuma matakin ragewa ya bambanta a cikin hanyar Siemens da aka gyara da kuma hanyar silane mai hana ruwa. Ingantaccen hanyar Siemens yana da fasahar samarwa mai girma da ingancin samfura mai yawa, kuma a halin yanzu ita ce fasahar samarwa da aka fi amfani da ita. Hanyar samar da Siemens ta gargajiya ita ce amfani da chlorine da hydrogen don haɗa hydrogen chloride mai hana ruwa, hydrogen chloride da silicon masana'antu mai hana ruwa don haɗa trichlorosilane a wani zafin jiki, sannan a raba, a gyara da kuma tsarkake trichlorosilane. Silicon yana fuskantar amsawar rage zafi a cikin tanderu mai rage hydrogen don samun silicon mai hana ruwa da aka ajiye a kan tsakiyar silicon. A kan wannan tushen, ingantaccen tsarin Siemens yana kuma sanye da tsarin tallafi don sake amfani da adadi mai yawa na samfuran da suka lalace kamar hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, da silicon tetrachloride da aka samar a cikin tsarin samarwa, waɗanda suka haɗa da rage dawo da iskar gas da fasahar sake amfani da silicon tetrachloride. Ana raba hydrogen, hydrogen chloride, trichlorosilane, da silicon tetrachloride a cikin iskar shaye-shaye ta hanyar dawo da bushewa. Ana iya sake amfani da hydrogen da hydrogen chloride don haɗawa da tsarkakewa tare da trichlorosilane, kuma ana sake amfani da trichlorosilane kai tsaye zuwa rage zafi. Ana yin tsarkakewa a cikin tanderu, kuma ana haɗa silicon tetrachloride don samar da trichlorosilane, wanda za'a iya amfani da shi don tsarkakewa. Wannan matakin kuma ana kiransa maganin hydrogenation mai sanyi. Ta hanyar cimma samar da kewaye mai rufewa, kamfanoni na iya rage yawan amfani da kayan masarufi da wutar lantarki sosai, ta haka ne za a adana farashin samarwa yadda ya kamata.
Kudin samar da polysilicon ta amfani da ingantaccen hanyar Siemens a China ya haɗa da kayan aiki, amfani da makamashi, raguwar farashi, farashin sarrafawa, da sauransu. Ci gaban fasaha a masana'antar ya haifar da raguwar farashi sosai. Kayan aiki galibi suna nufin silicon na masana'antu da trichlorosilane, amfani da makamashi ya haɗa da wutar lantarki da tururi, kuma farashin sarrafawa yana nufin farashin dubawa da gyara kayan aiki. A cewar kididdigar Baichuan Yingfu kan farashin samar da polysilicon a farkon watan Yunin 2022, kayan aiki sune mafi girman farashi, wanda ya kai kashi 41% na jimlar farashin, wanda silicon na masana'antu shine babban tushen silicon. Yawan amfani da na'urar silicon da aka saba amfani da ita a masana'antar yana wakiltar adadin silicon da aka cinye a kowace naúrar samfuran silicon masu tsabta. Hanyar lissafi ita ce a canza duk kayan da ke ɗauke da silicon kamar foda silicon na masana'antu da trichlorosilane zuwa silicon mai tsabta, sannan a cire chlorosilane da aka fitar kamar yadda aka saba. Adadin silicon mai tsabta da aka canza daga rabon abun ciki na silicon. A cewar bayanan CPIA, matakin amfani da silicon zai ragu da 0.01 kg/kg-Si zuwa 1.09 kg/kg-Si a shekarar 2021. Ana sa ran cewa tare da inganta maganin hydrogenation mai sanyi da sake amfani da kayayyakin da aka samar, ana sa ran zai ragu zuwa 1.07 kg/kg nan da shekarar 2030. kg-Si. A cewar kididdigar da ba ta cika ba, yawan amfani da silicon na manyan kamfanonin kasar Sin guda biyar a masana'antar polysilicon ya yi kasa da matsakaicin masana'antu. An san cewa biyu daga cikinsu za su cinye 1.08 kg/kg-Si da 1.05 kg/kg-Si bi da bi a shekarar 2021. Kashi na biyu mafi girma shine amfani da makamashi, wanda ya kai kashi 32% jimilla, wanda wutar lantarki ke daukar kashi 30% na jimillar kudin, wanda ke nuna cewa farashin wutar lantarki da inganci har yanzu muhimman abubuwa ne ga samar da polysilicon. Manyan alamomi guda biyu don auna ingancin wutar lantarki sune cikakken amfani da wutar lantarki da rage amfani da wutar lantarki. Rage amfani da wutar lantarki yana nufin tsarin rage trichlorosilane da hydrogen don samar da kayan silicon mai tsafta. Amfani da wutar lantarki ya haɗa da dumama da adana wutar lantarki a cikin core na silicon, adana zafi, iska ta ƙarshe da sauran amfani da wutar lantarki. A cikin 2021, tare da ci gaban fasaha da cikakken amfani da makamashi, matsakaicin yawan amfani da wutar lantarki na samar da polysilicon zai ragu da kashi 5.3% kowace shekara zuwa 63kWh/kg-Si, kuma matsakaicin rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki zai ragu da kashi 6.1% kowace shekara zuwa 46kWh/kg-Si, wanda ake sa ran zai ƙara raguwa a nan gaba. . Bugu da ƙari, raguwar farashi kuma muhimmin abu ne na farashi, wanda ya kai kashi 17%. Yana da kyau a lura cewa, bisa ga bayanan Baichuan Yingfu, jimlar farashin samar da polysilicon a farkon watan Yunin 2022 ya kai kusan yuan 55,816/ton, matsakaicin farashin polysilicon a kasuwa ya kai kusan yuan 260,000/ton, kuma jimlar ribar da aka samu ta kai kashi 70% ko fiye, don haka ya jawo hankalin ɗimbin Kamfanoni da ke saka hannun jari a gina ƙarfin samar da polysilicon.
Akwai hanyoyi guda biyu da masana'antun polysilicon za su iya rage farashi, ɗaya ita ce rage farashin kayan masarufi, ɗayan kuma ita ce rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki. Dangane da kayan masarufi, masana'antun za su iya rage farashin kayan masarufi ta hanyar sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyoyi na dogon lokaci tare da masana'antun silicon na masana'antu, ko gina ƙarfin samarwa na sama da na ƙasa. Misali, masana'antun samar da polysilicon sun dogara ne kawai da wadatar silicon na masana'antu. Dangane da amfani da wutar lantarki, masana'antun za su iya rage farashin wutar lantarki ta hanyar ƙarancin farashin wutar lantarki da kuma inganta yawan amfani da makamashi. Kimanin kashi 70% na yawan amfani da wutar lantarki shine rage yawan amfani da wutar lantarki, kuma raguwar ita ce babbar hanyar samar da silicon mai tsabta. Saboda haka, yawancin ƙarfin samar da polysilicon a China yana mai da hankali ne a yankunan da ke da ƙarancin farashin wutar lantarki kamar Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan da Yunnan. Duk da haka, tare da ci gaban manufofin carbon guda biyu, yana da wuya a sami babban adadin albarkatun wutar lantarki masu araha. Saboda haka, rage amfani da wutar lantarki don ragewa shine mafi yuwuwar rage farashi a yau. Hanya. A halin yanzu, hanya mafi inganci ta rage amfani da wutar lantarki ita ce ƙara yawan ƙwayoyin silicon a cikin tanderun rage wutar lantarki, ta haka ne za a faɗaɗa fitar da naúrar guda ɗaya. A halin yanzu, nau'ikan tanderun rage wutar lantarki na yau da kullun a China sune sanduna 36, sanduna 40 da sanduna 48. An haɓaka nau'in tanderun zuwa sanduna 60 da sanduna 72, amma a lokaci guda, yana kuma gabatar da buƙatu mafi girma ga matakin fasahar samarwa na kamfanoni.
Idan aka kwatanta da ingantaccen hanyar Siemens, hanyar gado mai ruwa silane tana da fa'idodi uku, ɗaya ita ce ƙarancin amfani da wutar lantarki, ɗayan kuma ita ce yawan fitar da kristal, kuma na uku shine cewa ya fi dacewa a haɗa ta da fasahar Czochralski mai ci gaba ta CCZ. A cewar bayanan Reshen Masana'antu na Silicon, cikakken amfani da wutar lantarki na hanyar gado mai ruwa silane shine kashi 33.33% na ingantaccen hanyar Siemens, kuma rage amfani da wutar lantarki shine kashi 10% na ingantaccen hanyar Siemens. Hanyar gado mai ruwa silane tana da fa'idodi masu yawa na amfani da makamashi. Dangane da jan kristal, halayen zahiri na silicon mai ruwa na iya sauƙaƙa cika gilashin quartz gaba ɗaya a cikin hanyar haɗin sandar jan silicon mai ruwa silane guda ɗaya. Silicon mai ruwa silane da silicon mai ruwa silane na iya ƙara ƙarfin caji na tanda guda ɗaya da kashi 29%, yayin da rage lokacin caji da kashi 41%, wanda ke inganta ingancin jan silicon mai ruwa silane guda ɗaya. Bugu da ƙari, silicon mai ruwa silane yana da ƙaramin diamita da kyakkyawan ruwa, wanda ya fi dacewa da hanyar Czochralski mai ruwa silane akai-akai ta CCZ. A halin yanzu, babbar fasahar jan lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya a tsakiya da ƙasa ita ce hanyar sake yin amfani da lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya ta RCZ, wadda ke sake ciyarwa da jan lu'ulu'u bayan an ja sandar lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya. Ana yin zane a lokaci guda, wanda ke adana lokacin sanyaya sandar lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya, don haka ingancin samarwa ya fi girma. Saurin haɓaka hanyar Czochralski mai ci gaba ta CCZ zai kuma haɓaka buƙatar lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya. Kodayake lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya yana da wasu rashin amfani, kamar ƙarin foda na silicon da aka samar ta hanyar gogayya, babban yanki na saman da sauƙin shaye gurɓatattun abubuwa, da hydrogen da aka haɗa zuwa hydrogen yayin narkewa, wanda ke da sauƙin haifar da tsalle-tsalle, amma bisa ga sabbin sanarwar kamfanonin lu'ulu'u guda ɗaya da suka dace, ana inganta waɗannan matsalolin kuma an sami wasu ci gaba.
Tsarin gado mai silane fluidized ya girma a Turai da Amurka, kuma yana cikin farkon lokacinsa bayan gabatar da kamfanonin China. Tun farkon shekarun 1980, silicon granular na ƙasashen waje wanda REC da MEMC suka wakilta ya fara binciken samar da silicon granular kuma ya sami babban samarwa. Daga cikinsu, jimillar ƙarfin samar da silicon granular na REC ya kai tan 10,500 a kowace shekara a shekarar 2010, kuma idan aka kwatanta da takwarorinsa na Siemens a wannan lokacin, yana da fa'idar farashi na akalla dala $2-3/kg. Saboda buƙatun jan lu'ulu'u ɗaya, samar da silicon granular na kamfanin ya tsaya cak kuma daga ƙarshe ya dakatar da samarwa, kuma ya koma ga haɗin gwiwa da China don kafa kamfanin samarwa don shiga cikin samar da silicon granular.
4. Kayan da aka samar: Silicon na masana'antu shine babban kayan da aka samar, kuma wadatarwar na iya biyan buƙatun faɗaɗa polysilicon.
Silicon na masana'antu shine babban kayan da ake amfani da shi wajen samar da polysilicon. Ana sa ran yawan sinadarin silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin zai karu sosai daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025. Daga shekarar 2010 zuwa 2021, yawan sinadarin silicon na masana'antu na kasar Sin yana cikin matakin fadada, inda matsakaicin karuwar karfin samarwa da fitarwa na shekara-shekara ya kai kashi 7.4% da 8.6%, bi da bi. A cewar bayanan SMM, sabon karuwar ya karu.ƙarfin samar da silicon na masana'antuA China, za a samu tan 890,000 da tan miliyan 1.065 a shekarar 2022 da 2023. Idan aka yi la'akari da cewa kamfanonin silicon na masana'antu za su ci gaba da amfani da ƙarfin aiki da kuma yawan aiki na kusan kashi 60% a nan gaba, sabon ƙaruwar da China ta yiYawan samar da kayayyaki a shekarar 2022 da 2023 zai haifar da karuwar fitar da kayayyaki na tan 320,000 da tan 383,000. A cewar kiyasin GFCI,Yawan samar da silicon a masana'antar Sin a ranar 22/23/24/25 ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 5.90/697/6.71/6.5, wanda ya yi daidai da tan miliyan 3.55/391/4.18/4.38.
Yawan ci gaban da sauran yankuna biyu na silicon masana'antu da aka haɗa a ƙasa yake da ɗan jinkiri, kuma samar da silicon masana'antu na China zai iya biyan buƙatun samar da polysilicon. A shekarar 2021, ƙarfin samar da silicon masana'antu na China zai kai tan miliyan 5.385, wanda ya yi daidai da fitar da tan miliyan 3.213, wanda daga cikinsu polysilicon, silicon na halitta, da aluminum za su cinye tan 623,000, tan 898,000, da tan 649,000, bi da bi. Bugu da ƙari, ana amfani da kusan tan 780,000 na fitarwa don fitarwa. A shekarar 2021, amfani da polysilicon, silicon na halitta, da aluminum za su kai kashi 19%, 28%, da 20% na silicon masana'antu, bi da bi. Daga 2022 zuwa 2025, ana sa ran ci gaban samar da silicon na halitta zai ci gaba da kasancewa a kusan kashi 10%, kuma ci gaban samar da aluminum ya yi ƙasa da kashi 5%. Saboda haka, mun yi imanin cewa adadin silicon na masana'antu da za a iya amfani da shi don polysilicon a 2022-2025 ya isa sosai, wanda zai iya biyan buƙatun samar da polysilicon gaba ɗaya.
5. Samar da Polysilicon:Chinayana da rinjaye, kuma samarwa a hankali yana taruwa zuwa manyan kamfanoni
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, yawan samar da polysilicon a duniya ya karu kowace shekara, kuma a hankali ya taru a kasar Sin. Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, yawan samar da polysilicon a duniya a kowace shekara ya karu daga tan 432,000 zuwa tan 631,000, tare da karuwar da ta fi sauri a shekarar 2021, tare da karuwar da ta kai kashi 21.11%. A wannan lokacin, yawan samar da polysilicon a duniya ya taru a kasar Sin a hankali, kuma adadin samar da polysilicon a kasar Sin ya karu daga kashi 56.02% a shekarar 2017 zuwa kashi 80.03% a shekarar 2021. Idan aka kwatanta manyan kamfanoni goma a fannin samar da polysilicon a duniya a shekarar 2010 da 2021, za a iya gano cewa adadin kamfanonin kasar Sin ya karu daga 4 zuwa 8, kuma adadin karfin samar da wasu kamfanonin Amurka da Koriya ya ragu sosai, inda ya fadi daga cikin manyan kungiyoyi goma, kamar HEMOLOCK, OCI, REC da MEMC; Yawan masana'antu ya karu sosai, kuma jimillar ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki na manyan kamfanoni goma a masana'antar ya karu daga kashi 57.7% zuwa kashi 90.3%. A shekarar 2021, akwai kamfanoni biyar na kasar Sin da suka kai sama da kashi 10% na karfin samar da kayayyaki, wanda ya kai jimillar kashi 65.7%. Akwai manyan dalilai guda uku na canja wurin masana'antar polysilicon zuwa kasar Sin a hankali. Na farko, masana'antun polysilicon na kasar Sin suna da fa'idodi masu yawa dangane da kayan aiki, wutar lantarki da kuma kudin aiki. Albashin ma'aikata ya yi kasa da na kasashen waje, don haka kudin samar da kayayyaki gaba daya a kasar Sin ya yi kasa da na kasashen waje, kuma zai ci gaba da raguwa da ci gaban fasaha; na biyu, ingancin kayayyakin polysilicon na kasar Sin yana ci gaba da ingantawa, yawancinsu suna matakin farko na hasken rana, kuma kamfanoni daban-daban masu ci gaba suna cikin bukatun tsarki. An samu ci gaba a fannin fasahar samar da polysilicon mai karfin lantarki, wanda a hankali ya haifar da maye gurbin polysilicon mai karfin lantarki na cikin gida da shigo da kayayyaki, kuma manyan kamfanonin kasar Sin suna ci gaba da inganta gina ayyukan polysilicon mai karfin lantarki. Yawan samar da wafers na silicon a kasar Sin ya kai sama da kashi 95% na jimillar samar da kayayyaki a duniya, wanda hakan ya kara yawan samar da polysilicon ga kasar Sin, wanda hakan ya kara matsin lamba ga kasuwannin polysilicon na kasashen waje zuwa wani mataki.
Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, yawan samar da polysilicon a kowace shekara a kasar Sin zai karu a hankali, musamman a yankunan da ke da wadataccen albarkatun wutar lantarki kamar Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, da Sichuan. A shekarar 2021, samar da polysilicon a kasar Sin zai karu daga tan 392,000 zuwa tan 505,000, wanda ya karu da kashi 28.83%. Dangane da karfin samar da kayayyaki, karfin samar da polysilicon a kasar Sin ya karu sosai, amma ya ragu a shekarar 2020 saboda rufe wasu masana'antun. Bugu da kari, yawan amfani da karfin samar da kayayyaki na kamfanonin polysilicon na kasar Sin yana karuwa akai-akai tun daga shekarar 2018, kuma yawan amfani da karfin samar da kayayyaki a shekarar 2021 zai kai kashi 97.12%. Dangane da larduna, samar da polysilicon a kasar Sin a shekarar 2021 ya fi yawa a yankunan da ke da karancin farashin wutar lantarki kamar Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, da Sichuan. Yawan samar da kayayyaki a Xinjiang ya kai tan 270,400, wanda ya fi rabin yawan samar da kayayyaki a kasar Sin.
Masana'antar polysilicon ta China tana da babban matsayi na maida hankali, tare da ƙimar CR6 na kashi 77%, kuma za a sami ci gaba mai girma a nan gaba. Samar da Polysilicon masana'antu ne mai manyan jari da manyan shingen fasaha. Tsarin gina aikin da samarwa yawanci yana ɗaukar shekaru biyu ko fiye. Yana da wuya sabbin masana'antu su shiga masana'antar. Idan aka yi la'akari da faɗaɗa da aka tsara da sabbin ayyuka a cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa, masana'antun oligopolistic a cikin masana'antar za su ci gaba da faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da su ta hanyar fasaharsu da fa'idodin girmansu, kuma matsayinsu na mallakar ƙasa zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa.
An kiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon na kasar Sin zai haifar da babban ci gaba daga 2022 zuwa 2025, kuma samar da polysilicon zai kai tan miliyan 1.194 a shekarar 2025, wanda hakan zai haifar da fadada girman samar da polysilicon na duniya. A shekarar 2021, tare da hauhawar farashin polysilicon a kasar Sin, manyan masana'antun sun zuba jari wajen gina sabbin layukan samarwa, kuma a lokaci guda sun jawo hankalin sabbin masana'antun su shiga masana'antar. Tunda ayyukan polysilicon za su dauki akalla shekaru daya da rabi zuwa biyu daga gini zuwa samarwa, za a kammala sabon gini a shekarar 2021. Galibi ana sanya karfin samarwa a cikin samarwa a rabin na biyu na 2022 da 2023. Wannan ya yi daidai da sabbin tsare-tsaren ayyukan da manyan masana'antun suka sanar a halin yanzu. Sabuwar karfin samarwa a 2022-2025 galibi tana da karfi a 2022 da 2023. Bayan haka, yayin da wadata da bukatar polysilicon da farashin suka daidaita a hankali, jimlar karfin samarwa a masana'antar za ta daidaita a hankali. Raguwa, wato, ƙaruwar ƙarfin samarwa a hankali ke raguwa. Bugu da ƙari, ƙimar amfani da ƙarfin aiki na kamfanonin polysilicon ya kasance a babban matsayi a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, amma zai ɗauki lokaci kafin ƙarfin samarwa na sabbin ayyuka ya ƙaru, kuma zai ɗauki tsari ga sabbin shiga don su ƙware fasahar shiri mai dacewa. Saboda haka, ƙimar amfani da ƙarfin aiki na sabbin ayyukan polysilicon a cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa zai yi ƙasa. Daga wannan, ana iya hasashen samar da polysilicon a 2022-2025, kuma ana sa ran samar da polysilicon a 2025 zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 1.194.
Yawan samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje yana da yawa, kuma ƙaruwar da saurin samarwa da kuma ƙaruwar samarwa a cikin shekaru uku masu zuwa ba zai kai na China ba. Ana amfani da ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje a kamfanoni huɗu mafiya girma, sauran kuma galibi ƙananan ƙarfin samarwa ne. Dangane da ƙarfin samarwa, Wacker Chem tana da rabin ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje. Masana'antunta a Jamus da Amurka suna da ƙarfin samarwa na tan 60,000 da tan 20,000, bi da bi. Faɗaɗar ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a duniya a shekarar 2022 da kuma bayan haka na iya haifar da damuwa game da yawan samar da kayayyaki, kamfanin har yanzu yana cikin yanayi na jira kuma bai yi niyyar ƙara sabon ƙarfin samarwa ba. Kamfanin Polysilicon na Koriya ta Kudu OCI yana ƙaura da layin samar da polysilicon na hasken rana zuwa Malaysia a hankali yayin da yake riƙe da layin samar da polysilicon na asali na lantarki a China, wanda aka shirya zai kai tan 5,000 a shekarar 2022. Ƙarfin samar da OCI a Malaysia zai kai tan 27,000 da tan 30,000 a cikin 2020 da 2021, wanda zai cimma ƙarancin kuɗin amfani da makamashi da kuma guje wa babban harajin China kan polysilicon a Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu. Kamfanin yana shirin samar da tan 95,000 amma ba a san ranar farawa ba. Ana sa ran zai ƙaru a matakin tan 5,000 a kowace shekara a cikin shekaru huɗu masu zuwa. Kamfanin REC na ƙasar Norway yana da sansanonin samarwa guda biyu a jihar Washington da Montana, Amurka, tare da ƙarfin samar da tan 18,000 na polysilicon na hasken rana da tan 2,000 na polysilicon na lantarki. Kamfanin REC, wanda ke cikin mawuyacin hali na kuɗi, ya zaɓi dakatar da samarwa, sannan aka ƙarfafa shi sakamakon hauhawar farashin polysilicon a shekarar 2021, kamfanin ya yanke shawarar sake fara samar da tan 18,000 na ayyuka a jihar Washington da tan 2,000 a Montana kafin ƙarshen 2023, kuma zai iya kammala haɓaka ƙarfin samarwa a shekarar 2024. Hemlock shine babban mai samar da polysilicon a Amurka, wanda ya ƙware a fannin polysilicon mai tsafta. Shinge-shinglen da ke da fasaha mai zurfi suna sa ya yi wa samfuran kamfanin wahala a maye gurbinsu a kasuwa. Idan aka haɗa da gaskiyar cewa kamfanin ba ya shirin gina sabbin ayyuka cikin 'yan shekaru, ana sa ran ƙarfin samarwa na kamfanin zai kasance daga 2022 zuwa 2025. Yawan fitarwa na shekara-shekara ya kasance tan 18,000. Bugu da ƙari, a shekarar 2021, sabon ƙarfin samarwa na kamfanoni banda kamfanoni huɗu da ke sama zai zama tan 5,000. Saboda rashin fahimtar tsare-tsaren samar da kayayyaki na dukkan kamfanoni, ana tsammanin a nan ne sabon ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki zai kai tan 5,000 a kowace shekara daga 2022 zuwa 2025.
A bisa ga ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje, an kiyasta cewa samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje a shekarar 2025 zai kai kimanin tan 176,000, idan aka yi la'akari da cewa yawan amfani da ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje bai canza ba. Bayan farashin polysilicon ya tashi sosai a shekarar 2021, kamfanonin China sun ƙara yawan samarwa da faɗaɗa samarwa. Akasin haka, kamfanonin ƙasashen waje sun fi taka tsantsan a shirye-shiryensu na sabbin ayyuka. Wannan ya faru ne saboda rinjayen masana'antar polysilicon ya riga ya kasance ƙarƙashin ikon China, kuma ƙaruwar samarwa a idon jama'a na iya haifar da asara. Daga ɓangaren farashi, amfani da makamashi shine mafi girman ɓangaren farashin polysilicon, don haka farashin wutar lantarki yana da matuƙar muhimmanci, kuma Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan da sauran yankuna suna da fa'idodi bayyanannu. Daga ɓangaren buƙata, kamar yadda polysilicon ke ƙasa kai tsaye, samar da silicon wafer na China ya kai fiye da kashi 99% na jimillar duniya. Masana'antar polysilicon da ke ƙasa ta fi mayar da hankali ne a China. Farashin polysilicon da aka samar yana da ƙasa, farashin sufuri yana da ƙasa, kuma ana tabbatar da buƙatar gaba ɗaya. Abu na biyu, China ta sanya haraji mai yawa kan shigo da polysilicon mai amfani da hasken rana daga Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu, wanda hakan ya takaita yawan amfani da polysilicon daga Amurka da Koriya ta Kudu. Ku yi taka tsantsan wajen gina sabbin ayyuka; Bugu da ƙari, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kamfanonin polysilicon na China na ƙasashen waje sun yi jinkirin haɓaka saboda tasirin harajin, kuma an rage wasu layukan samarwa ko ma an rufe su, kuma rabon su a cikin samar da kayayyaki a duniya yana raguwa kowace shekara, don haka ba za su yi daidai da hauhawar farashin polysilicon a 2021 ba a matsayin ribar da kamfanin China ke samu mai yawa, yanayin kuɗi bai isa ya tallafa wa faɗaɗa ƙarfin samarwa cikin sauri da girma ba.
Bisa ga hasashen da aka yi na samar da polysilicon a China da kuma ƙasashen waje daga 2022 zuwa 2025, za a iya taƙaita ƙimar da aka yi hasashen samar da polysilicon a duniya. An kiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon a duniya a 2025 zai kai tan miliyan 1.371. Dangane da hasashen ƙimar samar da polysilicon, ana iya samun kusan kashi ɗaya cikin ɗari na kason China na duniya. Ana sa ran cewa kason China zai faɗaɗa a hankali daga 2022 zuwa 2025, kuma zai wuce kashi 87% a 2025.
6, Takaitawa da Hangen Nesa
Polysilicon yana ƙasa da silicon na masana'antu kuma sama da dukkan sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic da semiconductor, kuma matsayinsa yana da matuƙar muhimmanci. Sarkar masana'antar photovoltaic gabaɗaya ƙarfin shigar polysilicon-silicon wafer-cell-module-photovoltaic ne, kuma sarkar masana'antar semiconductor gabaɗaya polysilicon-monocrystalline silicon wafer-silicon wafer-chip ne. Amfani daban-daban suna da buƙatu daban-daban akan tsarkin polysilicon. Masana'antar photovoltaic galibi tana amfani da polysilicon mai matakin hasken rana, kuma masana'antar semiconductor tana amfani da polysilicon mai matakin lantarki. Na farko yana da kewayon tsarki na 6N-8N, yayin da na biyun yana buƙatar tsarkin 9N ko fiye.
Shekaru da yawa, babban tsarin samar da polysilicon shine ingantaccen hanyar Siemens a duk faɗin duniya. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, wasu kamfanoni sun yi bincike sosai kan hanyar gado mai ƙarancin silane fluidized, wanda zai iya yin tasiri ga tsarin samarwa. Polysilicon mai siffar sanda wanda hanyar Siemens da aka gyara ta samar yana da halaye na yawan amfani da makamashi, farashi mai yawa da tsarki mai yawa, yayin da silicon granular da hanyar gado mai ƙarancin silane ta samar yana da halaye na ƙarancin amfani da makamashi, ƙarancin farashi da ƙarancin tsarki. Wasu kamfanonin China sun fahimci yawan samar da silicon granular da fasahar amfani da silicon granular don jawo polysilicon, amma ba a tallata shi sosai ba. Ko silicon granular zai iya maye gurbin tsohon a nan gaba ya dogara ne akan ko fa'idar farashi zai iya rufe rashin ingancin, tasirin aikace-aikacen ƙasa, da kuma inganta amincin silane. A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, samar da polysilicon na duniya ya ƙaru kowace shekara, kuma a hankali suna taruwa a China. Daga shekarar 2017 zuwa 2021, samar da polysilicon na duniya na shekara-shekara zai karu daga tan 432,000 zuwa tan 631,000, tare da karuwar da ta fi sauri a shekarar 2021. A wannan lokacin, samar da polysilicon na duniya ya kara yawa a kasar Sin, kuma kaso na samar da polysilicon na kasar Sin ya karu daga kashi 56.02% a shekarar 2017 zuwa kashi 80.03% a shekarar 2021. Daga shekarar 2022 zuwa 2025, samar da polysilicon zai haifar da karuwar girma. An kiyasta cewa samar da polysilicon a shekarar 2025 zai kai tan miliyan 1.194 a kasar Sin, kuma samar da shi a kasashen waje zai kai tan 176,000. Saboda haka, samar da polysilicon na duniya a shekarar 2025 zai kai tan miliyan 1.37.
(Wannan labarin don ambaton abokan cinikin UrbanMines ne kawai kuma baya wakiltar kowace shawara ta saka hannun jari)