Isimo samanje semithombo yomhlaba engavamile yase-Ukraine: amandla kanye nemikhawulo zikhona
1. Ukusatshalaliswa okugciniwe kanye nezinhlobo
Imithombo yomhlaba ongavamile yase-Ukraine isatshalaliswa kakhulu ezindaweni ezilandelayo:
- Isifunda saseDonbas: sicebile ngama-apatite deposits ezinto ezingavamile zomhlaba, kodwa indawo enobungozi obukhulu ngenxa yengxabano yaseRussia ne-Ukraine.
- I-Kryvyi Rih Basin: ama-rare earth deposits ahlotshaniswa ne-iron ore, ikakhulukazi ama-rare earths alula (njenge-lanthanum ne-cerium).
- Isifunda saseDnipropetrovsk: Kunemithombo yomhlaba engavamile ehlotshaniswa ne-uranium, kodwa izinga lokuthuthuka liphansi.
Ngokusho kwedatha evela kuMnyango Wezemvelo wase-Ukraine, inani eliphelele lezindawo ezigciniwe ze-rare earth oxide (REO) kulinganiselwa ukuthi liphakathi kwamathani angu-**500,000 kanye nesigidi esingu-1**, okubalwa cishe okungu-**1%-2%** kwezinqolobane eziqinisekisiwe emhlabeni, eziphansi kakhulu kuneShayina (cishe u-37%), iVietnam neBrazil. Ngokuphathelene nezinhlobo, izindawo ezigciniwe ezingavamile ezilula yizo eziyinhloko, kuyilapho izindawo ezisindayo ezingavamile (njenge-dysprosium ne-terbium) zimbalwa, kanti lezi zokugcina ziyizinto eziyinhloko emikhakheni yamandla amasha kanye nemboni yezempi.
2. Ukushiyeka kobuchwepheshe kanye nezingozi zezwe nezepolitiki
Naphezu kokuba khona kwezinsizakusebenza, imboni ye-rare earth yase-Ukraine ibhekene nezingqinamba eziningi:
- Ubuchwepheshe bezimayini obuphelelwe yisikhathi: imodeli enkulu yezimayini eyazuzwa njengefa kusukela enkathini yamaSoviet iholela ekusebenzeni kahle okuphansi futhi ayinabo ubuchwepheshe besimanje bokuhlanza;
- Umonakalo wengqalasizinda: Ingxabano ikhubaze izinhlelo zokuhamba kanye nogesi endaweni yezimayini, okwenza izindleko zokwakha kabusha zibe phezulu;
- Ukukhathazeka ngemvelo: Ukumbiwa komhlaba okungajwayelekile kungase kubhebhethekise izinkinga zemvelo empumalanga ye-Ukraine futhi kubangele imibhikisho yomphakathi.
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Isivumelwano Sezimbiwa sase-US-Ukraine: Amathuba Nezinselele
Ngo-2023, i-United States ne-Ukraine basayina iSivumelwano Sokuqondana Ngokubambisana Kwezimbiwa Ezibalulekile, esihlose ukuthuthukisa izinsiza zomhlaba ezingavamile zase-Ukraine ngosizo lwezezimali nolwezobuchwepheshe. Uma isivumelwano siqaliswa, singase silethe izinguquko ezilandelayo:
- Ukusungulwa kokuqala kochungechunge lwezimboni: Izinkampani zase-US zingasiza ekwakheni izimayini kanye nezindawo zokucubungula eziyinhloko, kodwa izicelo zokucwenga kanye nezicelo zezinga eliphezulu kusazodingeka zithembele kubantu bangaphandle;
- Inani lezepolitiki: I-Ukraine rare earths ingasebenza njengesengezo ku-"de-China" supply chain eYurophu nase-United States, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni we-light rare earths;
- Ukuthembela kakhulu ekuxhasweni ngezimali: Iphrojekthi idinga ukuqhubeka nokuheha inhloko-dolobha yaseNtshonalanga, kodwa ingozi yempi ingase inciphise ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali.
Ukuthatha Indawo YeShayina Eminyakeni Eyishumi? Igebe Phakathi Kweqiniso Nokuhle
Nakuba kunendawo yokucabanga ngokubambisana kwe-US-Ukraine, kuyangabazeka ukuthi imboni ye-rare earth yase-Ukraine izothatha indawo yeShayina phakathi neminyaka eyishumi ngenxa yezizathu ezilandelayo:
1. Umehluko omkhulu ekwabiweni kwezinsizakusebenza
- Izindawo zokugcina umhlaba ezingavamile zaseShayina zingu-37% wenani eliphelele lomhlaba, zimboza zonke izakhi ezingu-17, ikakhulukazi ubuningi bomhlaba ongavamile osindayo, okunzima ukuwunyakazisa;
- I-Ukraine inezindawo zokugcina inhlabathi ezingavamile ezilula futhi izindleko zokumba cishe ziphakeme kunezaseShayina (izindleko zokumba eBaotou, eShayina ziphansi kakhulu emhlabeni).
2. Igebe lokuvuthwa kochungechunge lwemboni
- I-China ilawula **60%** yomhlaba umhlaba ongavamileukumba kanye no-**90%** wamandla ayo okucwenga, futhi ineketanga eliphelele lezimboni kusukela ezimayini kuya kuma-magnet ahlala njalo;
- I-Ukraine idinga ukwakha izindawo zokucwenga kanye nezimboni ezinenani eliphezulu kusukela ekuqaleni, futhi iminyaka eyishumi yanele kuphela ukuqedela ukwakheka kokuqala.
1. Izingozi zezepolitiki kanye nezomnotho
- Ingxabano ende phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine izokwenza kube nzima ukuqinisekisa ukuphepha kwezindawo zokumba, futhi imali yamazwe ngamazwe izothatha isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona;
- I-China ingasebenzisa ukulawulwa kwamanani kanye nezithiyo zobuchwepheshe ukucindezela abancintisana nabo abasafufusa nokuqinisa isikhundla sayo emakethe.
4. Ukuguquguquka kwesidingo semakethe
- Isidingo somhlaba wonke somhlaba ongavamile kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule sifinyelele kumathani angu-300,000 ngonyaka ngo-2030, kanti ukwanda kuvela kakhulu ezimotweni zikagesi kanye namandla omoya. Ngisho noma i-Ukraine ikhiqiza ngokugcwele, kuzoba nzima ukuhlangabezana negebe.
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Isiphetho: Ukufakwa esikhundleni okuyingxenye esikhundleni sokuguqulwa okuphelele
Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, i-Ukraine ingase ibe yisengezo sesifunda ku-light rare earth supply chain eYurophu nase-United States, kodwa ubukhulu bayo bezimboni, izinga lobuchwepheshe, kanye nesimo sezwe sezombusazwe kunquma ukuthi kunzima ukushintsha ukubusa kweShayina emhlabeni wonke. Izinguquko zangempela yilezi:
- Intuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe: Uma i-Ukraine ifinyelela intuthuko eqhubekayo ekusetshenzisweni kabusha komhlaba ongavamile noma ubuchwepheshe bokumba oluhlaza, ingathuthukisa ukuncintisana kwayo;
- Umdlalo phakathi kwamandla amakhulu uyakhula: Uma i-United States isekela i-Ukraine ngazo zonke izindleko “esimweni sempi”, ingase isheshise ukwakhiwa kabusha kweketanga lokuphakelwa kwempahla.
Isifundo esivela endabeni ye-rare earth yase-Ukraine ukuthi ukuncintisana ngezinsiza kushintshe kusuka “ekuncintisaneni okugciniwe” kwaba umdlalo oyinkimbinkimbi “wobuchwepheshe + ithonya lezwe”, futhi inselele yangempela yaseShayina ingavela ekuhlaselweni kokunciphisa ubukhulu bobuchwepheshe obuphazamisayo kunokukhula kwelinye izwe elicebile ngezinsiza.
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**Ukucabanga okubanzi**: Enguqukweni entsha yezimboni eqhutshwa amandla amasha kanye ne-AI, noma ngubani olawula ubuchwepheshe bokucwengisisa umhlaba ongavamile kanye nocwaningo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezinto ezihlukile uzobusa ngempela uchungechunge lwezimboni lwesikhathi esizayo. Umzamo we-Ukraine ungase ube nje umbhalo waphansi walo mdlalo.