ʻO ke kūlana o kēia manawa o nā kumuwaiwai honua laha ʻole o Ukraine: hiki a me nā palena e noho pū ana
1. Ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o ka waihona a me nā ʻano
Ua hoʻolaha nui ʻia nā kumuwaiwai honua kakaikahi o Ukraine ma nā wahi aʻe:
- ʻĀpana ʻo Donbas: waiwai nui i nā waihona apatite o nā mea honua laha ʻole, akā he wahi pilikia nui ma muli o ke kaua Lūkini-Ukrainian.
- Kryvyi Rih Basin: nā waihona honua kakaʻikahi e pili ana me ka hao hao, ʻo ia hoʻi nā honua kakaʻikahi māmā (e like me ka lanthanum a me ka cerium).
- ʻĀpana ʻo Dnipropetrovsk: Aia nā kumuwaiwai honua kakaikahi e pili ana me ka uranium, akā haʻahaʻa ka pae hoʻomohala.
Wahi a ka ʻikepili mai ka ʻOihana Geological o Ukraine, ua manaʻo ʻia kona mau waihona honua laha ʻole (REO) ma waena o **500,000 a me 1 miliona tons**, e helu ana ma kahi o **1%-2%** o nā waihona i hōʻoia ʻia o ka honua, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o Kina (ma kahi o 37%), Vietnam a me Brazil. Ma ke ʻano o nā ʻano, ʻo nā honua laha ʻole māmā ke ʻano nui, ʻoiai ʻo nā honua laha ʻole kaumaha (e like me ka dysprosium a me ka terbium) he kakaikahi, a ʻo nā mea hope loa nā mea nui i nā kahua o ka ikehu hou a me ka ʻoihana koa.
2. Nā hemahema ʻenehana a me nā pilikia geopolitical
ʻOiai ke ola ʻana o nā kumuwaiwai, ke kū nei ka ʻoihana honua laha ʻole o Ukraine i nā palena he nui:
- ʻenehana mining kahiko: ʻo ke kumu hoʻohālike mining ākea i hoʻoilina ʻia mai ka wā Soviet e alakaʻi ana i ka pono haʻahaʻa a nele i ka ʻenehana hoʻomaʻemaʻe hou;
- Ka pōʻino o ke kahua: Ua hoʻopaʻa ka hakakā i nā ʻōnaehana halihali a me ka mana ma kahi eli ʻana, e hoʻonui ana i nā kumukūʻai kūkulu hou ʻana;
- Nā hopohopo no ke kaiapuni: Hiki i ka hana ʻeli honua laha ʻole ke hoʻonui i nā pilikia kaiapuni ma ka hikina o Ukraine a hoʻoulu i nā kūʻē lehulehu.
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ʻAelike Minerals US-Ukraine: Nā Manawa Kūpono a me nā Pilikia
I ka makahiki 2023, ua kau inoa ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me Ukraine i kahi Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Critical Minerals, kahi e manaʻo ai e hoʻomohala i nā kumuwaiwai honua kakaikahi o Ukraine ma o ke kōkua kālā a me ke kōkua loea. Inā hoʻokō ʻia ka ʻaelike, hiki ke lawe mai i nā hoʻololi penei:
- Hoʻokumu mua ʻana o ke kaulahao ʻoihana: Hiki i nā ʻoihana US ke kōkua i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā hale hana mining a me nā hana hana mua, akā pono nō e hilinaʻi nā noi hoʻomaʻemaʻe a me nā noi kiʻekiʻe i nā ʻaoʻao o waho;
- Ka waiwai geopolitical: Hiki i nā honua laha ʻole o Ukraine ke lawelawe ma ke ʻano he mea hoʻohui i ke kaulahao lako "de-China" ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻoi aku hoʻi ma ke kahua o nā honua laha māmā;
- Hilinaʻi nui ʻia ma ke kālā: Pono ka papahana e hoʻomau i ka hoʻowalewale ʻana i ke kapikala Komohana, akā hiki i ka pilikia o ke kaua ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka hilinaʻi o nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā.
Ke pani nei iā Kina i loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi? ʻO ke kaawale ma waena o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo a me ka manaʻo maikaʻi
ʻOiai aia kahi no ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka laulima ʻana o US-Ukraine, he mea kānalua ia e pani ka ʻoihana honua kakaikahi o Ukraine iā Kina i loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi no nā kumu penei:
1. ʻOkoʻa nui ma nā waihona kumuwaiwai
- ʻO 37% o ka huina o ka honua ka waihona honua laha ʻole o Kina, e uhi ana i nā mea 17 āpau, ʻoiai ka monopoly o nā honua laha ʻole kaumaha, kahi mea paʻakikī ke hoʻoluliluli;
- He palena iki nā waihona honua kakaikahi māmā o Ukraine a ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻeli ma mua o Kina (ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻeli ma Baotou, Kina ka mea haʻahaʻa loa ma ka honua).
2. ʻO ka hakahaka oʻo o ke kaulahao ʻoihana
- Ke kāohi nei ʻo Kina i ka **60%** o ka honua honua laha ʻoleka hana ʻeli ʻana a me **90%** o kona hiki ke hoʻomaʻemaʻe ʻia, a nona kahi kaulahao ʻoihana piha mai nā mines a hiki i nā magnet mau loa;
- Pono ʻo Ukraine e kūkulu i nā hale hoʻomaʻemaʻe a me nā ʻoihana waiwai nui mai ka wā ʻole, a he ʻumi makahiki wale nō ka lawa e hoʻopau ai i ka hoʻolālā mua.
1. Nā pilikia geopolitical a me ka hoʻokele waiwai
- ʻO ka hakakā lōʻihi ma waena o Rusia a me Ukraine e paʻakikī ai ke hōʻoia i ka palekana o nā wahi eli, a e kali a ʻike ke kapikala honua;
- Hiki iā Kina ke hoʻohana i ka hoʻoponopono kumukūʻai a me nā pale ʻenehana e kāohi i nā mea hoʻokūkū e kū mai ana a hoʻopaʻa i kona kūlana mākeke.
4. Nā dinamika koi mākeke
- Manaʻo ʻia e ulu ka noi honua no nā honua laha ʻole i 300,000 tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma ka makahiki 2030, me ka piʻi ʻana mai nā kaʻa uila a me ka mana makani. ʻOiai inā hana ʻo Ukraine i ka mana piha, e paʻakikī ke hoʻokō i ka hakahaka.
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Hopena: Hoʻololi hapa ma mua o ka hoʻokahuli piha
I loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, e lilo paha ʻo Ukraine i mea hoʻohui kūloko i ke kaulahao lako honua kakaikahi māmā ma ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, akā ʻo kona pae ʻoihana, ka pae ʻenehana, a me ke kaiapuni geopolitical e hoʻoholo ana he paʻakikī ke hoʻoluliluli i ka mana o Kina ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa. ʻO nā loli maoli:
- Nā holomua ʻenehana: Inā hoʻokō ʻo Ukraine i kahi lele i mua i ka hana hou ʻana o ka honua kakaikahi a i ʻole ka ʻenehana mining ʻōmaʻomaʻo, hiki iā ia ke hoʻomaikaʻi i kona hoʻokūkū;
- Ke piʻi nei ka pāʻani ma waena o nā mana nui: Inā kākoʻo ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa iā Ukraine ma nā koina āpau i loko o kahi "mokuʻāina kaua", hiki iā ia ke hoʻolalelale i ke kūkulu hou ʻana o ke kaulahao lako.
ʻO ke aʻo mai ka moʻolelo honua laha ʻole o Ukraine, ʻo ia ka neʻe ʻana o ka hoʻokūkū no nā kumuwaiwai mai kahi "heihei mālama" i kahi pāʻani paʻakikī o ka "ʻenehana + ka mana geopolitical", a ʻo ka pilikia maoli o Kina e hiki mai ana mai ka hoʻouka kaua hōʻemi dimensionality o ka ʻenehana hoʻopilikia ma mua o ka piʻi ʻana o kahi ʻāina waiwai nui ʻē aʻe.
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**Manaʻo hoʻonui**: I loko o ka hoʻokahuli ʻoihana hou i hoʻokele ʻia e ka ikehu hou a me ka AI, ʻo ka mea nāna e kāohi i ka ʻenehana hoʻomaʻemaʻe honua laha ʻole a me ka noiʻi a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea ʻē aʻe e noho aliʻi maoli i ke kaulahao ʻoihana e hiki mai ana. ʻO ka hoʻāʻo ʻana o Ukraine he footnote wale nō paha ia no kēia pāʻani.