Mamiriro aripo pari zvino ezviwanikwa zvenyika zvisingawanikwe muUkraine: mikana uye zvipingamupinyi zviripo
1. Kugoverwa kwenzvimbo uye mhando dzezvinhu zvakachengetwa
Zviwanikwa zvenyika zvisingawanzoonekwi muUkraine zvinonyanya kupararira munzvimbo dzinotevera:
- Dunhu reDonbas: rakapfuma muzvicherwa zveapatite zvezvinhu zvisingawanzoitiki zvevhu, asi inzvimbo ine njodzi huru nekuda kwehondo yeRussia neUkraine.
- Kryvyi Rih Basin: nzvimbo dzisina kugadzirwa dzevhu dzine chekuita nesimbi, kunyanya ivhu diki diki (rare earths) (senge lanthanum necerium).
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Kune zviwanikwa zvevhu zvisingawanzoonekwi zvine chekuita neuranium, asi huwandu hwekugadzirwa kwacho hwakaderera.
Zvichienderana nedata kubva kuUkraine Geological Department, huwandu hwayo hwese hwezvinhu zvisingawanzoonekwi (REO) hunofungidzirwa kuti huri pakati pematani zviuru zvishanu nemiriyoni imwe chete, zvichireva kuti huwandu hwayo hwezvinhu zvisingawanzoonekwi pasi rose hwakaderera zvikuru pane hweChina (inenge 37%), Vietnam neBrazil. Kana tichitaura nezvemhando dzayo, zvinhu zvisingawanzoonekwi zviri nyore ndizvo zvinonyanya kukosha, nepo zvinhu zvisingawanzoonekwi zviri nyore (zvakadai sedysprosium neterbium) zviri zvishoma, uye zvinhu zvekupedzisira ndizvo zvinonyanya kukosha muindasitiri yesimba idzva nemauto.
2. Kusakwana kwetekinoroji uye njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika
Pasinei nekuvapo kwezviwanikwa, indasitiri ye rare earth muUkraine inotarisana nematambudziko akawanda:
- Tekinoroji yekuchera yakare: modhi yakakura yekuchera yakagara nhaka kubva munguva yeSoviet inotungamira mukushanda kwakaderera uye isina tekinoroji yemazuva ano yekuchenesa;
- Kukuvadzwa kwezvivakwa: Kusawirirana kwakanganisa mashandiro ekufambisa nemagetsi munzvimbo yemigodhi, zvichiita kuti mari yekuvaka patsva ikwire;
- Zvinonetsa nezvezvakatipoteredza: Kuchera ivhu kusingawanzoitiki kunogona kuwedzera matambudziko ezvakatipoteredza kumabvazuva kweUkraine uye kukonzera kuratidzira kweveruzhinji.
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Chibvumirano cheMigodhi cheUS-Ukraine: Mikana nematambudziko
Muna 2023, United States neUkraine dzakasaina Chibvumirano cheKunzwisisana paKushandira pamwe muZvicherwa Zvakakosha, icho chine chinangwa chekuvandudza zviwanikwa zveUkraine zvisingawanikwe kuburikidza nerubatsiro rwemari nehunyanzvi. Kana chibvumirano chikashandiswa, chinogona kuunza shanduko dzinotevera:
- Kutanga kugadzwa kwechikamu chemaindasitiri: Makambani ekuUS anogona kubatsira kuvaka nzvimbo dzekuchera migodhi nedzekugadzira zvinhu, asi kuchenesa nekushandisa zvinhu zvepamusoro-soro zvicharamba zvichifanira kuvimba nemapoka ekunze;
- Kukosha kwezvematongerwo enyika: Nyika dzisiri dzemuUkraine dzinogona kushanda sekuwedzera kune "de-China" supply chain muEurope neUnited States, kunyanya mumunda wenyika dzisiri dzemuno;
- Kuvimba zvakanyanya nemari: Chirongwa ichi chinofanira kuramba chichikwezva mari yekumadokero, asi njodzi yehondo inogona kukanganisa chivimbo chevanoisa mari.
Kutsiva China mumakore gumi? Musiyano uripo pakati pechokwadi nepfungwa dzakanaka
Kunyangwe paine mukana wekufungidzira mukushandira pamwe kweUS neUkraine, hazvina chokwadi kuti indasitiri yeUkraine ichange ichitsiva China mukati memakore gumi nekuda kwezvikonzero zvinotevera:
1. Kusiyana kukuru kwezviwanikwa zvekushandisa
- Nzvimbo dzakachengetwa dzeChina dzinoita 37% yezvese zviri pasi rose, zvichisanganisira zvinhu zvese gumi nenomwe, kunyanya huwandu hwenyika dzinorema dzisingawanzoonekwi, idzo dzakaoma kudzibvisa;
- Ukraine ine nzvimbo shoma dzekuchengetedza matombo emugodhi uye mutengo wekuchera matombo ungangove wakakwira kupfuura weChina (mutengo wekuchera matombo muBaotou, China ndiwo wakaderera pasi rose).
2. Musiyano wekukura kwecheni yeindasitiri
- China inodzora **60%** yepasi rose ivhu risingawanzoonekwikuchera uye **90%** yekugona kwayo kunatsa, uye ine cheni yakazara yeindasitiri kubva kumigodhi kusvika kumagineti anogara aripo;
- Ukraine inofanira kuvaka nzvimbo dzekuchenesera zvinhu nemaindasitiri ane mutengo wakakwira kubva pakutanga, uye makore gumi chete anongokwana kuti ipedzise kuronga kwekutanga.
1. Njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi
- Kusawirirana kwenguva refu pakati peRussia neUkraine kuchaita kuti zviome kuvimbisa kuchengetedzeka kwenzvimbo dzemigodhi, uye mari yepasi rose ichada kumirira uye kuona;
- China inogona kushandisa mitemo yemitengo nezvipingamupinyi zvetekinoroji kudzvinyirira makwikwi ari kubuda uye kusimbisa chinzvimbo chayo pamusika.
4. Maitiro ekudiwa kwemusika
- Kudiwa kwenyika dzese kwezvirimwa zvisingawanzoonekwi kunotarisirwa kukura kusvika matani 300,000 pagore panosvika gore ra2030, kuwedzera kwacho kuchinyanya kubva kumotokari dzemagetsi nemagetsi emhepo. Kunyangwe Ukraine ikagadzira zvigadzirwa zvayo zvizere, zvichave zvakaoma kugadzirisa musiyano uyu.
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Mhedziso: Kutsiva chikamu pane kuchinjisa kwakazara
Mumakore gumi anotevera, Ukraine inogona kunge iri chikamu chekuwedzera kune light rare earth supply chain muEurope neUnited States, asi huwandu hwayo hwemaindasitiri, hunyanzvi hwayo, uye mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika zvinoratidza kuti zvakaoma kudzinga simba reChina pasi rose. Zvinhu chaizvo zvinochinja ndeizvi:
- Kubudirira kwetekinoroji: Kana Ukraine ikafambira mberi mukuvandudza tekinoroji yekudzokorodza zvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa kana yekuchera migodhi yakasvibira, inogona kuvandudza kukwikwidza kwayo;
- Mutambo uri pakati penyika dzine simba guru uri kuramba uchikura: Kana United States ikatsigira Ukraine nepese painogona napo mu "nyika yehondo", inogona kukurumidzisa kuvaka patsva kwezvekutengeswa kwezvinhu.
Chidzidzo kubva munyaya yeUkraine inotyisa ndechekuti kukwikwidzana kwezviwanikwa kwachinja kubva pakuva "rudzi rwevanhu vakachengetwa" kuenda kumutambo wakaoma we "tekinoroji + simba rezvematongerwo enyika", uye dambudziko guru reChina rinogona kubva mukurwiswa kwekuderedza miganhu yetekinoroji inovhiringidza pane kukwira kwenyika imwe ine zviwanikwa zvakawanda.
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**Kufunga kwakakura**: Mukuchinja kweindasitiri kutsva kunotungamirirwa nesimba idzva uye AI, chero ani zvake anodzora tekinoroji yekunatswa kwenyika isingawanzoonekwi uye kutsvagisa nekugadzira zvimwe zvinhu zvichachinja zvichave nesimba guru mune ramangwana reindasitiri. Kuedza kweUkraine kungave kungori chiratidzo chemutambo uyu.