Umthombo: Isikhulu Sezindaba saseWall Street
Intengo yeI-Alumina (i-Aluminium Oxide)ifinyelele ezingeni layo eliphakeme kakhulu kule minyaka emibili, okuholele ekwandeni kokukhiqizwa yimboni ye-alumina yaseShayina. Lokhu kukhuphuka kwamanani e-alumina emhlabeni wonke kushukumisele abakhiqizi baseShayina ukuba bandise ngenkuthalo amandla abo okukhiqiza futhi basebenzise ithuba lemakethe.
Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva evela ku-SMM International, ngoJuni 13thNgo-2024, amanani e-alumina eNtshonalanga ye-Australia akhuphuke afinyelela ku-$510 ngethani, okubonisa ukuphakama okusha kusukela ngoMashi 2022. Ukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka kudlule ku-40% ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokunikezwa kwempahla ekuqaleni konyaka.
Lokhu kukhuphuka okukhulu kwentengo kuvuselele intshiseko yokukhiqiza embonini ye-alumina (Al2O3) yaseShayina. UMonte Zhang, umqondisi ophethe we-AZ Global Consulting, wembule ukuthi amaphrojekthi amasha ahlelelwe ukukhiqizwa eShandong, eChongqing, e-Inner Mongolia naseGuangxi phakathi nengxenye yesibili yalo nyaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Indonesia ne-India nazo ziyandisa ngenkuthalo amandla azo okukhiqiza futhi zingase zibhekane nezinselele zokuphakelwa ngokweqile ezinyangeni ezingu-18 ezizayo.
Ngonyaka odlule, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla eShayina nase-Australia kuye kwanyusa kakhulu amanani emakethe. Isibonelo, i-Alcoa Corp yamemezela ukuvalwa kwefektri yayo yokuhlanza i-Kwinana alumina enekhono lokukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.2 ngonyaka ngoJanuwari. NgoMeyi, iRio Tinto yamemezela amandla amakhulu emithwalweni evela efektri yayo yokuhlanza i-alumina eseQueensland ngenxa yokushoda kwegesi yemvelo. Lesi simemezelo esisemthethweni sibonisa ukuthi izibopho zesivumelwano azikwazi ukufezwa ngenxa yezimo ezingalawuleki.
Lezi zenzakalo azigcinanga nje ngokubangela ukuthi amanani e-alumina (alumina) eLondon Metal Exchange (LME) afinyelele phezulu ezinyangeni ezingama-23 kodwa futhi zandisa nezindleko zokukhiqiza i-aluminium eShayina.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba ukunikezwa kubuya kancane kancane, isimo sokuntuleka kokunikezwa emakethe kulindeleke ukuthi sinciphe. UColin Hamilton, umqondisi wocwaningo lwezimpahla e-BMO Capital Markets, ulindele ukuthi amanani e-alumina azokwehla futhi asondele ezindleleni zokukhiqiza, awele ngaphansi kwama-$300 ngethani. URoss Strachan, umhlaziyi e-CRU Group, uyavumelana nalo mbono futhi ukhuluma nge-imeyili ukuthi ngaphandle kokuthi kube nokuphazamiseka okwengeziwe ekunikezweni, ukwenyuka kwentengo okubukhali kwangaphambilini kufanele kuphele. Ulindele ukuthi amanani ehle kakhulu kamuva kulo nyaka lapho ukukhiqizwa kwe-alumina kuqala kabusha.
Noma kunjalo, umhlaziyi weMorgan Stanley u-Amy Gower unikeza umbono oqaphile ngokuveza ukuthi iShayina iveze inhloso yayo yokulawula ngokuqinile amandla amasha okucwenga i-alumina angathinta ibhalansi yokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo. Embikweni wakhe, uGower ugcizelela: "Esikhathini eside, ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwe-alumina kungase kuncishiswe. Uma iShayina iyeka ukwandisa amandla okukhiqiza, kungase kube nokushoda isikhathi eside emakethe ye-alumina."