Umthombo: Igosa leendaba laseWall Street
Ixabiso leI-Alumina (i-Aluminium Oxide)ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kule minyaka mibini, nto leyo ekhokelele ekwandeni kwemveliso yishishini le-alumina laseTshayina. Oku kunyuka kwamaxabiso e-alumina kwihlabathi jikelele kukhuthaze abavelisi baseTshayina ukuba bandise ngamandla amandla abo emveliso kwaye basebenzise ithuba lemarike.
Ngokwedatha yamva nje evela kwi-SMM International, nge-13 kaJunithNgowama-2024, amaxabiso e-alumina eNtshona Ostreliya anyuke aya kwi-$510 ngetoni, nto leyo ethetha ukuphakama okutsha ukusukela ngoMatshi 2022. Ukunyuka konyaka kudlule kwi-40% ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kobonelelo ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka.
Oku kunyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso kuvuselele umdla kwimveliso kwishishini laseTshayina le-alumina (Al2O3). UMonte Zhang, umlawuli ophetheyo we-AZ Global Consulting, utyhile ukuba iiprojekthi ezintsha zicwangciselwe ukuveliswa eShandong, eChongqing, eInner Mongolia naseGuangxi kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka. Ukongeza, i-Indonesia ne-India nazo ziyandisa ngamandla amandla azo emveliso kwaye zinokujongana nemingeni yokubonelela ngokugqithisileyo kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezizayo.
Kunyaka ophelileyo, ukuphazamiseka kobonelelo eTshayina nase-Australia kuye kwanyusa kakhulu amaxabiso emarike. Umzekelo, i-Alcoa Corp ibhengeze ukuvalwa kwefektri yayo yokucoca i-alumina yaseKwinana enomthamo wonyaka weetoni ezi-2.2 yezigidi ngoJanuwari. NgoMeyi, iRio Tinto yabhengeza amandla amakhulu kwimithwalo evela kwifektri yayo yokucoca i-alumina eseQueensland ngenxa yokunqongophala kwegesi yendalo. Esi sibhengezo sisemthethweni sibonisa ukuba izibophelelo zesivumelwano azinakuzalisekiswa ngenxa yeemeko ezingalawulekiyo.
Ezi ziganeko azizange zibangele nje kuphela ukuba amaxabiso e-alumina (alumina) kwiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu leenyanga ezingama-23 kodwa zandisa neendleko zokuvelisa i-aluminium eTshayina.
Nangona kunjalo, njengoko unikezelo lubuyela kwimeko entle kancinci kancinci, imeko yokungabikho konikezelo kwimarike kulindeleke ukuba inciphe. UColin Hamilton, umlawuli wophando lweempahla kwi-BMO Capital Markets, ulindele ukuba amaxabiso e-alumina aza kuncipha aze afikelele kwiindleko zemveliso, awele kuluhlu olungaphezulu kwe-$300 ngetoni. URoss Strachan, umhlalutyi kwi-CRU Group, uyavumelana nalo mbono kwaye ukhankanya kwi-imeyile ukuba ngaphandle kokuba kukho ukuphazamiseka okungakumbi kunikezelo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okukhawulezileyo kwangaphambili kufuneka kuphele. Ulindele ukuba amaxabiso ehle kakhulu kamva kulo nyaka xa imveliso ye-alumina iqala kwakhona.
Nangona kunjalo, umhlalutyi weMorgan Stanley uAmy Gower unika umbono oqaphelekayo ngokubonisa ukuba iTshayina ibonakalise injongo yayo yokulawula ngokungqongqo amandla amatsha okucocwa kwe-alumina anokuchaphazela ulungelelwaniso lobonelelo lwemarike kunye nemfuno. Kwingxelo yakhe, uGower ugxininisa: "Ekuhambeni kwexesha, ukukhula kwemveliso ye-alumina kunokuncitshiswa. Ukuba iTshayina ayisayi kwandisa amandla emveliso, kunokubakho ukunqongophala kwexesha elide kwimarike ye-alumina."