Tushe: Jami'in Labaran Wall Street
FarashinAlumina (Aluminum Oxide)ya kai matsayinsa mafi girma a cikin waɗannan shekaru biyu, wanda ya haifar da ƙaruwar samar da kayayyaki daga masana'antar alumina ta China. Wannan ƙaruwar farashin alumina a duniya ya sa masu samar da kayayyaki na China su faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki da kuma amfani da damar kasuwa.
A cewar sabbin bayanai daga SMM International, a ranar 13 ga YunithA shekarar 2024, farashin alumina a Yammacin Ostiraliya ya tashi zuwa dala $510 a kowace tan, wanda hakan ya nuna sabon matsayi tun daga Maris 2022. Karin da aka samu a shekara bayan shekara ya wuce kashi 40% saboda cikas ga wadatar kayayyaki a farkon wannan shekarar.
Wannan gagarumin hauhawar farashi ya kara sha'awar samarwa a masana'antar alumina (Al2O3) ta kasar Sin. Monte Zhang, babban daraktan AZ Global Consulting, ya bayyana cewa an shirya sabbin ayyuka don samarwa a Shandong, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia da Guangxi a rabin na biyu na wannan shekarar. Bugu da kari, Indonesia da Indiya suma suna kara karfin samar da kayayyaki kuma suna iya fuskantar kalubale da yawa a cikin watanni 18 masu zuwa.
A cikin shekarar da ta gabata, katsewar samar da kayayyaki a China da Ostiraliya ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kasuwa sosai. Misali, Kamfanin Alcoa Corp ya sanar da rufe matatar alumina ta Kwinana wacce ke da karfin tan miliyan 2.2 a shekara a watan Janairu. A watan Mayu, Rio Tinto ya ayyana rashin karfin aiki kan kayayyakin da aka shigo da su daga matatar alumina da ke Queensland saboda karancin iskar gas. Wannan sanarwar doka ta nuna cewa ba za a iya cika wa'adin kwangila ba saboda yanayi mara kyau.
Waɗannan abubuwan ba wai kawai sun sa farashin alumina (alumine) a kan London Metal Exchange (LME) ya kai matsayi mafi girma na tsawon watanni 23 ba, har ma sun ƙara farashin masana'antar aluminum a cikin China.
Duk da haka, yayin da wadatar kayayyaki ke farfaɗowa a hankali, ana sa ran ƙarancin wadatar kayayyaki a kasuwa zai ragu. Colin Hamilton, darektan bincike kan kayayyaki a BMO Capital Markets, ya yi hasashen cewa farashin alumina zai ragu kuma ya kusanci farashin samarwa, yana faɗuwa cikin kewayon sama da $300 a kowace tan. Ross Strachan, wani manazarci a CRU Group, ya yarda da wannan ra'ayi kuma ya ambaci a cikin imel cewa sai dai idan akwai ƙarin cikas a cikin wadata, hauhawar farashin da aka yi a baya ya kamata ya ƙare. Yana sa ran farashin zai ragu sosai daga baya a wannan shekarar lokacin da samar da alumina ya dawo.
Duk da haka, manazarci a Morgan Stanley, Amy Gower, ta bayar da hangen nesa mai kyau ta hanyar nuna cewa China ta bayyana niyyarta ta takaita sabbin karfin tace alumina wanda zai iya shafar daidaiton wadata da buƙata a kasuwa. A cikin rahotonta, Gower ta jaddada: "A cikin dogon lokaci, ci gaban samar da alumina na iya zama iyakance. Idan China ta daina ƙara yawan samar da alumina, za a iya samun ƙarancin lokaci a kasuwar alumina."